Tuesday’s surge followed a 16% gain on Monday and capped a string of sharp advances that began late last month. On Monday, December 29, the index rose 22%, followed by another 7% gain on Friday, January 2, when trading resumed after the New Year holiday. With the latest move, the benchmark is up 87% in just two trading sessions in January.
The latest rally adds to extraordinary longer-term gains. Barring November 2025, the index rose in every month last year, delivering an annual return of 1,644%. According to available data, Venezuela’s stock market began trading in 2018. The index surged 4,400% in 2019 and 1,380% in 2020, and has since posted minimum annual returns of at least 100% over the next four years, with the lowest being 106% in 2024.
Politics, oil and shifting expectations
The market reaction followed a dramatic escalation over the weekend. The U.S. launched an attack on Venezuela on the intervening night of Friday and Saturday, leading to the arrest of Maduro along with his wife. Maduro now faces trial in the U.S. on various charges, including narco-terrorism.Investor focus has also shifted to oil flows and Washington’s next moves. Caracas and Washington have reached a deal to export up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude to the United States, Trump said on Tuesday. The arrangement follows the weekend strike on Venezuela, as well as comments from the White House that the U.S. was examining options to acquire Greenland and that the use of the U.S. military toward that goal was “always an option”.
In global markets, the reverberations were immediate. Crude futures slid while resource shares climbed in early Asian trading on Wednesday, January 7, as markets absorbed the impact of political upheaval in Venezuela and the fate of its petroleum reserves. Oil prices extended losses after U.S. President Donald Trump said Venezuela would be “turning over” up to 50 million barrels of oil to be sold at market prices following the toppling and capture of the nation’s leader.
For now, investors are grappling with whether the explosive rally reflects a lasting re-rating tied to political change and oil access, or another chapter in a market long defined by extreme volatility. The index is already up 87% in just two sessions this year, after years of triple- and quadruple-digit gains.
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