Speaking to ET Now, Hari said the oil market is grappling with “a power vacuum and political abyss” in Venezuela, with conflicting signals emerging from Washington and Caracas. While US President Donald Trump suggested that the US could temporarily oversee Venezuela’s transition, subsequent remarks from US officials indicated a more complex and uncertain path ahead.
Confusion in Caracas, limited upside for crude
Hari noted that Vice President Rodriguez and senior military officials in Venezuela have reiterated support for President Nicolás Maduro, signalling resistance to US influence. At the same time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed that sanctions and restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports remain firmly in place.
“These developments point to continued disruption in Venezuelan crude exports rather than any near-term supply surge,” Hari said. She added that state-run oil company PDVSA has already asked joint venture partners to cut output after running out of storage capacity.
Venezuela currently produces an estimated 600,000–700,000 barrels per day, down sharply from nearly one million barrels per day earlier. A worst-case scenario could see a complete shutdown of Venezuelan production—around 900,000 barrels per day—which would be only “moderately bullish” for global oil prices, Hari said.
US oil companies’ entry seen as long-term aspiration
Commenting on President Trump’s remarks that US oil companies are keen to enter Venezuela, Hari cautioned that such developments are highly aspirational and irrelevant for near- to medium-term oil pricing.
“Restoring Venezuela’s oil infrastructure would require investments running into hundreds of billions of dollars,” she said, adding that US oil majors would first demand political stability, regulatory clarity, new contracts, and a predictable fiscal regime.Hari estimates that even under favourable conditions, tapping Venezuela’s vast oil reserves would be a process spanning five to ten years or longer, making any supply impact a distant prospect.
OPEC+ quotas unlikely in near term
Addressing whether Venezuela could be brought back under production quotas if output rises, Hari said the issue is premature. Venezuela, an OPEC+ member, is currently exempt from quotas due to its prolonged crisis.
“In the immediate term, even a recovery to one million barrels per day would not change OPEC+ dynamics,” she said. In a best-case scenario, Venezuela could return to around two million barrels per day over the next two to three years, at which point OPEC+ may consider reintroducing production limits.
However, Hari noted that OPEC+ has historically been patient with countries emerging from sanctions and conflict, as seen in Libya’s case, suggesting any quota decision would be several years away.
India impact limited for now
For India, the impact of Venezuelan uncertainty remains marginal, Hari said, as global oil markets continue to be driven by broader supply-demand fundamentals rather than isolated geopolitical events. With crude prices showing only modest upticks of 30–40 cents, she expects volatility to remain contained unless disruptions escalate significantly.