How do you see the impact of the US-India agreement on M&A, especially after the RBI has allowed local banks to fund these transactions?
The agreement is getting companies to rethink their business models and geographic strategies, and M&A will naturally become one of the tools they use. Regulatory liberalisation and reforms are a good thing because the pie should become bigger. Indian banks have far deeper corporate relationships-especially with mid-sized firms that may become acquisition targets-so Bank of America expects more collaboration with them on cross-border transactions and would not be surprised to partner in multiple forms.
How has business changed for Bank of America and its corporate clients after “Liberation Day”?
Day-to-day activity hasn’t changed, the level of dialogue has grown significantly. Clients now seek broader strategic guidance-on supply chains, global expansion, European vs US market strategies, and the implications of new trade agreements like India-Switzerland. Discussions have moved from routine financing queries such as the next bond deal to a broader query like what does my supply chain look like.
Will the US tariffs bring China plus one back into focus. What does it mean for India?
Higher US tariffs give India an opportunity to reinforce its role in global manufacturing supply chains. Even if India’s tariffs on US imports are higher, its trade agreements with the EU, UK and Switzerland could offset disadvantages. Tariffs are also relative- If Indian tariffs are at 18%, but somebody else is at 20% or 15%, then it doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re better or worse off. The shift toward supply-chain resilience began well before Liberation Day and will continue, with companies, including Bank of America, really thinking through supply chain resilience, and making sure that you can continue to run your business be it pandemic, or geopolitics or something else.
Do you believe the dollar has lost its supremacy?
The dollar hasn’t lost its supremacy. Over the past 10-15 years, it really has been a continuous strengthening. My sense is that its role as a core reserve and trading currency remains intact. Short-term movements-whether strength or weakness-tend to reflect shifting data, sentiment and global activity, and are hard to interpret as long-term trends. A period of relative softness is reasonable after years of appreciation, but it does not signal a structural decline. What are the opportunities you see operating in India?
India’s biggest opportunity lies in its expanding middle class, which I think is its core strength. This apart, its high-quality talent pool, and the strength of its institutions. That’s central to my thesis that India is a good place to invest in. Major reforms-legal, infrastructure and energy-along with sustained government investment are strengthening the country’s foundation. The share of the US in global GDP, by definition, has fallen given the rise of China and India. I am particularly impressed with your digital stack and the Aadhaar system.
And what are the constraints?
The challenges are historically a lot of bureaucracy and regulations which increase complexity. We have had to spend millions to comply with the rules which say that all of India’s data must be held locally. I am happy to say that we have complied with them. Those are the sorts of things that, in the world going forward, all governments need to think about, in terms of how they implement those sorts of things.
What internal factors have limited Bank of America’s ability to scale its operations in India, despite having a six-decade presence as a whole-bank licensee?
We are absolutely bringing more (to the) balance sheet. Bank of America remains a wholesale-focused bank in India because its global strategy centres on corporate and investment banking and markets, not on consumer or wealth management, which it does not pursue outside the US. We have been increasing our India country limits, growing presence in GIFT City, with further expansion planned. India generally is importing capital as an economy. We are serving 500-600 corporate clients, many of whom require cross-border capabilities that only a handful of global banks can offer. As banking pie grows along with the economy, we can play at scale in India, in Japan, in Europe or in the US.
Is geopolitics today very high on your watch list in terms of risk?
Geopolitics is on everybody’s radar right now. The markets must be attuned to it, more so than before. This is a time where a lot of things are being reassessed afresh such as tariffs, trade routes, the rise in India, the size of China and new economies like Saudi Arabia opening up their markets. So, I think that in many positive ways as well, we have come through the Covid crisis, we have come through a lot of environmental debates. Fundamentally, capitalism comes through. The core underlying architecture, which is driven by price signals, competition, capital flows, and reasonable leverage remains as strong as ever. But absolutely it depends on exactly where you are, the business that you do, the sector you are in.