DHARMESH SHAH
HEAD OF TECHNICALS, ICICI SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed this week?
Going ahead, we expect the index to oscillate within the broader range of 23,400– 24,500. This consolidation would make the market healthy, as it strengthens the market’s foundation for an eventual push towards the 24,800 mark (aligned with the 200-day EMA) in the coming weeks. Thereby, any decline from hereon should not be construed as negative; instead, it should be capitalised on to accumulate high-quality stocks on dips, backed by strong earnings, as strong support is placed at 23,100.
Trading Strategy
We expect the index to hold its key support zone of 23,500, being its former gap support and the 50% retracement of its recent rally (22,182–24,601). Hence, any decline towards 23,390–23,500 should be used as a buying opportunity for a target of 23,800. In the process, strong support is placed at 23,270 levels.
TOP BETS FOR THE WEEK JSW Steel: Buy at Rs 1,240–1,266 | Stop loss at Rs 1,115 | Target Rs 1,445
The stock looks attractive after a strong rebound from the lower band of its long-term rising channel. Structurally, the 52-week EMA has acted as a “floor” since July 2022, with buying demand re-emerging near this level, supporting a favourable risk-reward at current levels.
Power Grid: Buy at Rs 306–316 | Stop loss at Rs 289 | Target Rs 352
Structurally, the stock has broken out of a long-term falling trendline resistance connecting the highs of October 2024 & 2025. The current pullback has formed a bullish flag pattern above the 52-week EMA, signalling base formation near an elevated support zone and an incremental buying opportunity with risk-reward.
AgenciesSUDEEP SHAH
HEAD – TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, SBI SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed?
The recovery rally from the recent low of 22,182 has lost momentum, shifting from a sharp rebound into a phase of correction and consolidation. Nifty slipped below 23,900 and ended the week down 1.87%, largely due to profit booking after the prior upmove. Technically, the index has broken below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, indicating weakening short-term strength. Momentum indicators also reflect softness, with RSI slipping below key levels and MACD showing a gradual loss of bullish momentum. This suggests a likely range-bound phase rather than a strong directional move. From a levels perspective, the 23,700–23,650 zone is a crucial support area, with a breakdown potentially dragging Nifty towards 23,300. On the upside, resistance is placed at 24,200–24,250, and only a sustained move above this band can revive bullish momentum.
Trading Strategies
Since the index is trading in a range with volatility, we advise traders to go long on Nifty on a breakout above 24,250, with a stop loss at 24,000 for a target of 24,700.
TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Cochin Shipyard: Buy at Rs 1,664 | Stop loss at Rs 1,580 | Target Rs 1,850–1,950
Cochin Shipyard is trading above its key moving averages across timeframes. Post consolidation, the stock has seen a strong breakout, with buying visible on all dips. Relative strength versus other defence names and the broader market remains favourable.
Aster DM Healthcare: Buy at Rs 705 | Stop loss at Rs 660 | Target Rs 750–770
It continues to trade in a steady uptrend, holding firmly above its key medium- and long-term moving averages. We expect it to move towards Rs 750–770.
TANMAY SHAH
RESEARCH HEAD, SIHL
Where is Nifty headed this week?
Technically, the index remains influenced by ongoing geopolitical developments, keeping volatility elevated. For the week ahead, Nifty is likely to find strong support around 23,600, which could act as a base for consolidation. As long as this level holds, the broader structure remains constructive, with a potential resumption of the uptrend towards the 200-day moving average placed near 25,125. A decisive move beyond 24,450 would further strengthen bullish momentum.
Trading Strategy
Recommend a bull call spread to position for near-term upside. Traders may consider buying the 23,900 Call and selling the 24,400 Call of the 5th May expiry. The strategy offers a favourable risk-reward with limited downside, while capturing gains if Nifty trends higher towards the upper resistance zone. It is well-suited for a moderately bullish view amid an improving technical setup.
TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Coal India: Buy at Rs 455 | Stop loss at Rs 441 | Target Rs 478–486
The stock shows relative strength in a weak market, consistently holding above its 20-week moving average, indicating strong support. Sustained closes above this level signal a bullish bias.
Graphite India: Buy at Rs 724.8 | Stop loss at Rs 690 | Target Rs 765–780
Technically, the stock has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on the higher timeframe and delivered a decisive upside breakout, indicating structural strength. The trend remains bullish post-breakout