Maruti Suzuki Q4 preview: Revenue to surge up to 30% YoY led by volumes, higher ASPs; brokerages mixed on PAT – News Air Insight

India’s largest passenger car maker, Maruti Suzuki India Limited (MSIL), is expected to report a mixed set of Q4FY26 earnings, with brokerages divided on profitability even as revenue growth remains strong due to healthy volumes and improved realisations. Margin expansion on a yearly basis is likely, supported by operating leverage, though sequential cost pressures may persist.

The Brezza and Vitara maker is expected to report a net profit in the range of Rs 3,272 crore to Rs 4,437 crore, according to estimates given by four brokerages. While Kotak Institutional Equities remains most bullish, pegging the profit after tax (PAT) growth at 20%, YES Securities sees a year-on-year decline of 12% on an adjusted basis due to higher depreciation.

The topline is expected to grow between 25% and 30% in the range of Rs 50,808 crore to Rs 52,721 crore in the January-March quarter of FY26.

The estimates from Motilal Oswal Financial Services and HDFC Securities have also been taken into account.

The company will announce its earnings on Tuesday, April 28.

Here’s what brokerages expect across key parameters:

1. PAT

– Kotak Equities expects PAT at Rs 4,437 crore, up 20% YoY and 1% QoQ.

– Motilal Oswal pegs PAT at Rs 3,978 crore, up 7% YoY.

– YES Securities estimates PAT at Rs 3,272 crore, down 12% YoY and 25% QoQ, citing higher depreciation (adjusted PAT decline).

– HDFC Securities forecasts PAT at Rs 3,884 crore, up 5% YoY but down 7% QoQ.

2. Revenue

– Kotak Equities expects net sales at Rs 51,718 crore, up 27% YoY and 4% QoQ, led by volume growth and a 14% YoY rise in average selling prices (ASPs).

– Motilal Oswal estimates revenue at Rs 50,808 crore, up 25% YoY.

– YES Securities pegs revenue at Rs 52,721 crore, up 30% YoY and 6% QoQ, supported by strong ASP growth and improved mix.

– HDFC Securities forecasts revenue at Rs 50,939 crore, up 25% YoY and 2% QoQ.

3. EBITDA

– Kotak Equities expects EBITDA at Rs 6,458 crore, up 51% YoY and 5% QoQ, aided by operating leverage, lower ad spends and reversal of one-offs.

– Motilal Oswal estimates EBITDA at Rs 5,997 crore, up 41% YoY.

– YES Securities pegs EBITDA at Rs 6,196 crore.

4. EBITDA margin

– Kotak Equities sees margins at 12.5% (vs 10.5% YoY and 12.4% QoQ), driven by operating leverage and lower discounts.

– Motilal Oswal expects margins at 11.8% (vs 10.5% YoY), but down 60 bps QoQ due to cost pressures.

– YES Securities estimates margins at 11.8%, up 127 bps YoY but down 57 bps QoQ.

– HDFC Securities pegs margins at 11.7%, up 120 bps YoY but down ~50–56 bps QoQ, impacted by higher raw material, production and freight costs.

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5. Volume

– Kotak Equities expects volumes at 6,76,209 units, up 12% YoY and 1.3% QoQ.

– Motilal Oswal estimates volumes at ~6,76,200 units, up 12% YoY, though growth remains capped by capacity constraints.

– YES Securities also sees volumes at ~6.76 lakh units, up 11.8% YoY and 1.3% QoQ, with ASP growth of ~16% YoY aiding revenue.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)