Barring 2017 and 2018, when India’s heartbeat index reported positive returns of Rs 4.6% and 4.7%, respectively, the story has painfully remained the same in remaining periods. The sharpest fall occurred in 2016 when Nifty fell nearly 5%. It is followed by a 2.5% decline in 2021 and 2023 while a 1.7% slip in 2020.
In 2019, 2022, 2024 and 2025, the index fell 0.3%, 0.08%, 0.03% and 0.6%, respectively.
The average return over the 10-year period is negative 0.5%.
FII/DII data
FIIs have largely been net sellers in January over the past decade, underlining the month’s reputation for weak sentiment. Out of the last 10 Januarys, FIIs sold equities in seven years, with notable bouts of heavy outflows in 2022 (-Rs 33,303 crore), 2023 (-Rs 28,852 crore) and 2024 (-Rs 25,744 crore). The selling intensified sharply in January 2025, when FIIs offloaded a massive Rs 78,027 crore, the steepest January outflow in the period under review. While there were brief exceptions such as 2018, 2020 and 2021, when FIIs were net buyers, the broader trend points to persistent caution among overseas investors at the start of the year, often weighing on market performance.
In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have played a crucial counterbalancing role, stepping in as net buyers in most Januarys over the past decade. DIIs recorded net inflows in eight of the last 10 years, providing stability during periods of foreign selling. Their support was particularly strong in 2022 (Rs 21,928 crore), 2023 (Rs 33,412 crore) and 2024 (Rs 26,744 crore), and peaked in January 2025 with a record inflow of ₹86,592 crore, more than offsetting the sharp FII outflows. The data highlights the growing importance of domestic capital in cushioning the market, reinforcing the structural shift toward stronger local participation in Indian equities.
Nifty outlook
Nifty December rollover settled at 37.8%, lower than the previous 40.0% and trailing the 3-month and 6-month averages of 41.8% and 51%, respectively signaling cautious benchmark trading, An Axis Securities note said.
“Market-wide rollover advanced to 60.0% from 57.6% previously; this aligns with the 3-month average (60.0%) but remains below the 6-month benchmark (63.7%). The option data for the December series indicates a strong Call Open Interest (OI) at the 26,100-strike price, followed by 26,200. In contrast, a substantial concentration of Put OI is observed at 26,000, with additional levels at 25,800. This suggests the likely range for the current expiry is between 25,800 and 26,200,” the note said.
Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth Global Research expects Nifty to test targets of 27,000 and end its seven year losing streak in January this year. “Technically it is looking positive as it is forming higher top higher bottom formations. Strong support at 24,000 and 21,000 levels . One can go for buy in Nifty any dip around 25,000-25,500 with the stop loss of 24,000 and for the target of 28,000 to 29,000. By the end of 2026, it may test 28,500 to 29,000 levels,” he added.
Nifty will be ending 2025 positive, witnessing positive annual returns for the 10th consecutive year.
(Data Inputs from Ritesh Presswala)
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