Noida airport was inaugurated on 28 March 2026 and is slated to handle its first commercial flights in May, triggering a wave of questions from investors on whether GMR’s flagship asset will see a meaningful growth reset as a new competing hub comes up in its backyard.
“Our investor interactions suggested concerns regarding a potential traffic shift from DIAL adversely impacting GMR,” the brokerage said in a note. Yet, after a detailed catchment and passenger-profile analysis, it concludes that “overall passenger shift may be limited to 10–15% over 3–4 years with the shift largely concentrated in domestic passengers.”
International traffic holds the key for airport economics
JM Financial’s core argument is that DIAL’s role as a key hub, backed by far superior last-mile connectivity, insulates it from a major erosion of its base. The report points out that Delhi airport benefits from “significant mass transit options (metro railways), strong connections to nearby cities (railway stations) and highway connectivity,” making it the natural gateway for most of the National Capital Region even after Noida comes on stream. On their estimates, potential traffic shift is 10–11% overall, “with significant domestic led shift (12–13%) and limited international shift.”
Crucially for GMR’s earnings narrative, the brokerage argues that the risk is more optical than economic. “While the domestic shift can impact headline traffic numbers, it is unlikely to have much impact on non-aeronautical revenues which are driven largely by international passengers,” it says.
DIAL’s strategy of improving passenger mix via a higher share of international travellers, supported by the expansion of Terminal 3’s Pier C to handle more widebody aircraft, is “more likely” to continue, with the airport gradually releasing domestic slots over time and focusing on “higher margin international traffic.”
On the international side, JM Financial pegs the potential diversion to NIAL at under 4%, despite Noida enjoying a clear distance advantage for Agra, Mathura and Aligarh. The report flags that 31% of DIAL’s international passengers have Agra as their tourist destination and 18% specifically visit the Taj Mahal, for whom Jewar is about an hour closer in travel time than Delhi airport.
However, government surveys cited in the note suggest that “60% of global tourists visiting the Taj Mahal may prefer an airport near Agra as they are visiting multiple destinations in India where DIAL has clear connectivity advantages,” limiting the actual shift. For now, “current traffic suggests that initial international connections are viable for Dubai only at present,” underscoring Delhi’s continued dominance as the region’s global hub.
Noida airport vs Delhi airport: Which one is closer to home?
Even within Noida’s immediate backyard, the geography is not entirely in NIAL’s favour. The brokerage highlights that in Gautam Budh Nagar district, where the new airport is located, “80% of the urban population is located at Dadri Tehsil which is 25km closer to DIAL versus NIAL.” For Ghaziabad as well, time advantages are “clearly on the side of DIAL,” a situation that is “unlikely to change unless the Palwal–Khurja Expressway is developed,” and the preference pattern is not expected to materially shift until the planned Regional Rapid Transit System (RRTS) link to NIAL at Sarai Kale Khan is up and running.
On the domestic front, JM Financial expects NIAL to initially attract lower-margin Regional Connectivity Scheme (RCS) traffic, drawing a parallel with the Hindon air base which focuses on regional routes for parts of Southwest Delhi, Ghaziabad and central areas. Hindon’s passenger throughput at 1.13 million in FY26 has “largely peaked,” the report notes, adding that studies indicate scope for some shift in domestic traffic from East Delhi, South/Southeast Delhi and parts of New/Central Delhi towards Noida. Even with this, the analysts reiterate that the impact on DIAL’s non-aero revenue pool is likely to be limited, given its dependence on international passengers and higher-yield spending patterns.
Cargo, another important revenue driver for Delhi airport, also appears resilient in the face of Noida’s commissioning. JM Financial estimates that NIAL “can largely service cargo demand around the Greater Noida region,” including 50% of NCR’s international cargo generated at Ghaziabad and Gautam Budh Nagar and around 30% from Gurugram, Faridabad and Jhajjar. Still, it expects only a sub-6% shift in cargo volumes in the initial years because DIAL’s international cargo mix is split between dedicated freighters and belly cargo, whereas NIAL “is likely to be belly cargo and thus will have limited international connections.”
Looking further ahead, the analysts argue that Noida could in fact help Delhi manage its own capacity constraints rather than undermine it. As slot pressure at DIAL rises and “constraints… increase with fewer hours of free slot availability” closer to FY30, they see NIAL as “well-placed to cater peak traffic spillover at DIAL, aircraft night parking and refuelling.” This, they suggest, “can induce DIAL to release domestic slots and increase international slots,” pushing up the share of international passengers and, in turn, non-aeronautical revenues for GMR’s flagship asset.
Interestingly, JM Financial’s more immediate concerns on GMR Airports lie outside the Noida-versus-Delhi narrative. The note flags the Iran–Israel–US “West Asia crisis” as a key near-term headwind, with restricted Middle East airspace weighing on international traffic in March 2026. Industry data compiled by the brokerage show an 18.3% year-on-year drop in international passengers in March, driven largely by steep declines at Kerala airports such as Kannur and Kochi; against this backdrop, DIAL’s international traffic fell a relatively modest 7.5%, while Hyderabad (GHIAL) and Goa (GIAL) saw sharper drops of 24.7% and 26.4% respectively.
Sluggish trends at Hyderabad and potential traffic shifts from Navi Mumbai airport have prompted JM Financial to trim its FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates for GMR by 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Even after the cut, it expects consolidated EBITDA to rise from ₹59,319 million in FY26E to ₹80,471 million in FY28E, with margins expanding from 51.3% to 57.4% over the same period. At the stock’s current level of around ₹96, GMR Airports trades at about 18x FY28 EV/EBITDA, versus a long-term domestic airport average of 21x which the brokerage uses to value its operational Indian airports in a sum-of-the-parts framework.
Factoring in operational assets, under-construction projects and a sizeable land bank, JM Financial has nudged down its 12‑month target price on GMR Airports to ₹115 from ₹120 earlier, implying close to 20% upside and justifying a reiterated “BUY” call.