Hindustan Copper: Is most of the rally behind us?
Hindustan Copper has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the recent surge in copper prices. The stock’s rally has been driven by a combination of higher dollar-denominated contract prices, a weakening rupee, and broad-based optimism across the metals space. Trading volumes and price action point to strong technical momentum, with the stock comfortably above key indicators on both daily and weekly charts.
Yet, some market participants believe much of the upside may already be priced in. “Hindustan Copper has played out to a large extent. The stock has run up, so I would not be in a rush to play it,” said Sameer Dalal, CEO of Natverlal & Sons Stockbrokers to ET NOW.
Fundamentally, the backdrop for copper remains supportive. Dipan Mehta, Director at Elixir Equities, described the copper market as being in a “fantastic growth phase,” driven by rising industrial usage and global electrification trends. He noted that higher realisations from dollar-linked contracts and a depreciating rupee have strengthened the company’s margin outlook. According to Mehta, metal companies such as Hindustan Copper naturally benefit from currency movements since a significant portion of their revenues is tied to dollar-linked prices.
However, Mehta also flagged concerns. He believes Hindustan Copper looks expensive even by metals sector standards and cautioned that copper’s inherent price volatility could weigh on earnings. He further pointed to limited visibility on volume or capacity expansion, which could constrain long-term growth.
Adding to the fundamental comfort is operational visibility. Parthiv Jhonsa of Anand Rathi highlighted that Hindustan Copper has consistently increased concentrate volumes over the last four to five quarters. This has been aided by the extension of all seven mine leases across Rajasthan and Jharkhand until 2040–2043, providing long-term operational clarity well beyond 2030–31. “It’s not just copper prices, but higher volumes, forex tailwinds and lease certainty that have driven the rally,” Jhonsa said.
Anand Rathi Institutional is factoring in a revenue CAGR of around 25% over FY25–FY31, with EBITDA expected to grow at 27–28%. The company is net cash positive, and its expansion capex is expected to be funded entirely through internal accruals, without disrupting its deleveraging plans.
From a technical standpoint, the trend remains decisively bullish. Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking noted that Hindustan Copper has staged a clean breakout above its earlier multi-year resistance zone. The stock has seen impulsive rallies followed by shallow pullbacks, suggesting strong institutional participation. As long as the Rs 480–500 zone is protected, the structure remains positive. Sustained strength above Rs 520 could open the door for a medium-term move toward Rs 600 and beyond, Mishra said, while also warning that mildly overbought conditions could lead to periodic consolidation.
Hindustan Zinc: A leveraged silver play with possible limited near-term upside
If copper is the electrification story, Hindustan Zinc is increasingly a silver story. The company is among the world’s top five silver producers, with an annual capacity of around 800 tonnes. Silver has become a meaningful profit driver, contributing nearly 38% of the company’s EBIT.
But after a strong rally, some experts are cautious. “Hindustan Zinc could continue to do well as long as silver prices remain high because profitability increases significantly. But the stock has already run up from Rs 400 to above Rs 600, so there is very limited upside for fresh investors,” Dalal said.
The stock’s recent performance has been impressive, rising 38% in 2025. In December, Jefferies initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 660, implying roughly 5% upside from current levels.
Jefferies views Hindustan Zinc as a clear beneficiary of elevated silver and zinc prices, supported by its first-decile zinc mining costs. While volume growth is expected to remain modest, earnings momentum is projected to stay strong. EPS is estimated to grow 22% in FY26 and 29% in FY27, followed by another 7% rise in FY28. The brokerage expects robust cash generation and healthy return ratios, with FY26–28 EPS estimates placed well above broader Street expectations.
From a valuations perspective, it is trading at about 9.2x FY27E EV/EBITDA, above its long-term average of 7.3x. Jefferies believes the premium is justified due to silver’s growing contribution to profitability, but acknowledges that much of the optimism is already reflected in the stock price.
Technically, the picture remains constructive. The stock has resumed its broader uptrend after a prolonged consolidation, decisively breaking out of the Rs 480–500 base. Rising volumes confirm the strength of the move. As long as Hindustan Zinc holds above the Rs 560–580 zone, the trend remains positive, with potential upside toward Rs 650–680. On the downside, Rs 540–550 is seen as a key medium-term support.
Both stocks remain linked to strong underlying commodity trends, but the debate for 2026 hinges on valuation and risk-reward. Hindustan Copper offers long-term structural tailwinds and operational visibility, but experts warn that volatility and rich valuations could limit near-term returns. Hindustan Zinc, while a powerful silver play with robust cash flows, appears to have most of the good news already priced in. For investors entering 2026, selectivity and timing may matter as much as the metal story itself.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)