Speaking to ET Now, Peter McGuire, CEO, Australia-Trading.com said the decision has come at a critical moment for the market, noting, “These are early hours on this decision. We understand the significance 12% of production… it blindsided OPEC.”
He also highlighted the speed of the move, adding, “It is a quick decision… they are waiting 48 hours sort of thing,” while pointing out that “prices are up from here I would say.”
On the broader oil outlook, McGuire linked price direction to ongoing geopolitical tensions, asking, “How long is this situation going to run for?” He suggested that if tensions persist, “you are going to see prices move up from here.” Referring to current levels, he noted, “You have got WTI just on 100. I am expecting prices to continue uptick,” and further warned that “120 is going to be a… and it could be there sooner than later.”
On the question of whether the UAE’s exit could weaken OPEC+ cohesion, McGuire said, “It is not going to galvanise the strength of it,” adding that “it is going to put a chink in armour” and raising uncertainty over “who is going to be next.”
He also emphasized the UAE’s strategic focus on domestic priorities, stating, “UAE to focus on national interest,” and added, “They need income and they need to ratchet that up.” He further pointed to infrastructure advantages, mentioning “the opportunity for buyers using Fujairah as a hub.”
Overall, market participants remain cautious as the oil landscape adjusts to both geopolitical risks and shifting producer dynamics, with the UAE’s move adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile environment.