Speaking to ET Now, Shah said that the sharp rally seen in gold and silver in 2025 is unlikely to repeat, but the long-term outlook for precious metals remains constructive.
Gold, silver outlook 2026: Support from central banks, EV demand
Shah noted that gold prices continue to find support from sustained central bank buying, while silver benefits from rising industrial demand, particularly from electric vehicles and clean energy applications. However, he cautioned that silver, being an industrial commodity, is vulnerable to substitution if prices rise beyond reasonable levels.
“Investors should closely track central bank activity through global data such as World Gold Council reports. As long as central banks continue buying, gold prices will remain supported,” he said.
Equity markets 2026: Earnings, not valuations, to drive returns
On equities, Shah believes that valuation-led rerating for Indian markets looks difficult as largecaps, midcaps and smallcaps already trade at premiums to historical averages and global peers.
According to him, earnings growth will be the primary driver of returns in CY26 and beyond, aided by structural reforms and a double-digit earnings outlook for CY26 and FY27.
Midcaps are expected to outperform due to relatively stronger earnings growth and valuations closer to fair value.
Largecaps may deliver steady returns aligned with earnings growth.Smallcaps could underperform as they continue to trade at a steep premium.
Bottom-up stock picking to dominate
Shah expects 2026 and 2027 to be defined by bottom-up investing, with winners and losers emerging within sectors based on deal-making, technology adoption and access to capital.
In new-age sectors, he highlighted two key requirements for success:
- Access to sustained capital
- A clear path to profitability
IT Sector: Buying ahead of a software revival
Addressing the recent revival in IT stocks, Shah dismissed the notion that rupee depreciation is a long-term driver of margins. Instead, he said the optimism is linked to future opportunities in AI software.
“Currently, most investment is going into AI hardware like GPUs. Once that curve flattens, spending will shift towards software, where Indian IT services companies can play a meaningful role,” he said, adding that markets are “buying before the news”.
Sectoral view 2026: PSU banks, pharma rotation; caution on realty
PSU Banks: Shah sees further scope for valuation expansion as net interest margins bottom out and earnings growth continues.
Pharma: He expects sectoral rotation, especially favouring domestic-focused and CDMO players, while generic exporters to the US may lag.
Real Estate: Shah remains cautious, warning that apparent demand may be overstated due to redevelopment sales being counted as fresh demand.
IPOs and liquidity: Valuation discipline key
With a strong IPO pipeline expected in 2026, Shah believes primary market supply has helped channel liquidity at reasonable valuations. He advised investors to evaluate IPOs with the same rigour as listed stocks, focusing on management quality, fundamentals and valuations rather than short-term listing gains.
Risks to watch: Global events, geopolitics
While acknowledging risks from tariffs, geopolitical tensions and foreign investor flows, Shah said markets typically discount known events. Over the long term, such shocks tend to have limited impact on intrinsic value.
“Equity investors discount the next 10–20 years, not just one or two quarters,” he said.
Key advice for investors in 2026
Shah’s message to investors remains clear: “Follow the dharma of asset allocation.”
He cited the Kotak Multi-Asset Allocation Fund as an example, with roughly:
- 23% in gold and silver
- 57.5% in equity
- The balance in fixed income
“Transparency and disciplined allocation matter more than chasing returns,” Shah concluded.