Congress and its allies were seen trailing with lower seat projections. The state also recorded a high voter turnout of over 85%, indicating strong participation.
West Bengal exit polls were more varied but largely pointed towards a BJP advantage. Pollsters such as Praja Poll, Poll Diary, Matrize and Chanakya Strategies projected the party crossing the majority mark, with estimates ranging from 142 to over 200 seats.
Despite the political significance, early market signals remain cautious. GIFT Nifty was trading lower by over 100 points, indicating a muted to negative start for domestic equities on Thursday.
Analysts say that while exit polls often trigger short-term volatility, their broader impact tends to be limited. Vishnu Tripathi, AVP at Garud Investment Managers, noted that such developments lead investors to reassess positions based on expected policy direction at the state level.
“State election outcomes influence regional policy execution, infrastructure spending and industrial development priorities. Sectors like banking and infrastructure may see localized impact depending on which party forms the government,” he said.
However, he added that broader market direction is driven more by macro factors such as earnings growth, inflation and interest rates rather than state-level political shifts.The backdrop for markets remains mixed. On Wednesday, benchmark indices rebounded strongly, with the Sensex gaining over 600 points and the Nifty closing above 24,100, supported by value buying and optimism around corporate earnings. FMCG, auto and telecom stocks led the gains, while banks and power stocks lagged.
Analysts attributed the rally primarily to earnings resilience rather than macro or political triggers. “The core driver was earnings. Strong results reinforced confidence in domestic demand and balance sheet strength,” said Hariprasad K of Livelong Wealth.
However, global cues remain a concern. Elevated crude oil prices near $110 per barrel, continued foreign institutional outflows and a weak rupee are still weighing on sentiment, limiting any sustained upside.
From a technical standpoint, markets remain at a crucial juncture. Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the Nifty has managed to hold key support levels but lacks directional clarity.
“The index moved above the 50-day EMA but failed to sustain at higher levels. The sentiment remains unclear, with potential for movement in either direction. Immediate support is seen at 24,150 and 23,900, while resistance is placed at 24,350 and 24,550,” he said.
Given this setup, the market reaction to exit polls is likely to be selective rather than broad-based. Stocks linked to infrastructure, state spending or regional exposure could see some movement, but overall indices may remain guided by global cues and earnings momentum.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)