International benchmark Brent crude for June delivery was trading 3% higher at $114.64 per barrel, extending gains after posting its seventh straight positive session on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for June delivery rose 3.6% to $103.54 per barrel. The contract had settled 3.7% higher in the previous session and has now gained more than 49% since the U.S.- and Israeli-led war against Iran began in February.
The latest surge comes after a Wall Street Journal report late Tuesday said that U.S. officials, including President Donald Trump, have asked aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran. The report said Trump plans to maintain pressure on Iran’s economy and oil exports by restricting shipping to and from its ports.
Although a ceasefire remains in place in the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, the broader dispute remains unresolved as both sides continue to seek a formal settlement. Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that handles around 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, while the United States continues its blockade of Iranian ports.
Washington is pressing Iran to end what it describes as a nuclear weapons programme. Iran, meanwhile, is demanding reparations for the latest round of fighting, easing of economic sanctions, and some level of control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. president on Wednesday also issued a warning to Iran on Truth Social, saying the country “better get smart soon!” and accusing its leadership of failing to “get their act together.”
Efforts to continue negotiations aimed at ending the war appeared to have stalled in recent days. Energy traders were also assessing the implications of the UAE’s abrupt decision to leave OPEC, though analysts said the move is unlikely to have a major immediate market impact given the ongoing Middle East crisis.
$150 in sight?
According to a Haitong Futures note cited by Reuters, the current ceasefire phase increasingly appears to be preparation for further conflict. It added that if U.S.-Iran talks fail to make meaningful progress by the end of April and hostilities resume, oil prices could rise to fresh highs for the year.
Macquarie estimates crude prices may remain supported in the $85 to $90 range in the near term, with a gradual move towards $110 as supply conditions improve. It also warned that prolonged disruptions through April could push Brent as high as $150 per barrel.
Nuvama Institutional Equities said an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20 million barrels per day, could lift crude prices into the $110 to $150 range.
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