Srivastava cautioned that the December-quarter earnings season may disappoint market hopes, especially after the post-GST excitement has largely played out. “The numbers coming in January could be less buoyant than expected. We are still way too expensive given the underlying growth rates,” he said, adding that a weaker rupee near ₹92–93 to the dollar could further hurt corporate balance sheets through forex losses.
According to him, investors should prepare for more turbulence and stock-specific moves rather than broad-based rallies. “Leave aside autos, most sectors are struggling with sales on the ground. This suggests consolidation could extend well into the next year, at least until there is clarity from the Union Budget on fiscal priorities and capital allocation,” he said.
US technology remains a structural bet
Despite near-term volatility, Srivastava remains constructive on US equities, particularly in cutting-edge technology segments such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. “If you want exposure to where value is being created globally, there is no alternative to the US. Sixty percent of future tech value creation sits there,” he said.
He added that for Indian investors, currency depreciation has provided a natural hedge against volatility in Nasdaq stocks. “We are consumers, not producers, of advanced technology. So you invest where it is produced and earn where it is consumed,” he said, advising staggered entry rather than lump-sum investments.
Auto sector a long-term global story
Among domestic themes, Srivastava is most bullish on automobiles, particularly two-wheelers and auto ancillaries, citing India’s unmatched manufacturing ecosystem. “Auto is not just a domestic consumption story anymore. India will become the most dominant exporter of two-wheelers globally in the next few years,” he said.
Low penetration in emerging markets such as Africa and strong export competitiveness position Indian auto companies for sustained growth over the next 5–10 years, he added. “This is one of the few sectors where India is truly globally competitive.”
Caution on new-age platform companies
Srivastava struck a cautious note on new-age technology and platform companies, warning investors against chasing valuations without clear profitability visibility. “These stocks are exciting like a casino, but many still have no path to profitability—only a path to cash burn,” he said.
He advised limiting exposure to such companies to 5–10% of a portfolio. “Remember, all existing investors are sellers over the next three years. You are buying into businesses where everyone else wants to exit,” he warned.
Metals and global assets gaining appeal
On precious metals, Srivastava hinted at a growing shift toward silver and gold as capital reallocates away from expensive domestic equities. “Artificially low interest rates and tax structures are pushing money into equities despite poor risk-adjusted returns,” he said.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs), he added, are unlikely to chase Indian stocks at current valuations. “Why buy Indian stocks at 80–90 times earnings when US AI companies trade at 30–50 times? FIIs will come, but only at the right price,” he said, noting that FII participation remains largely confined to IPOs rather than secondary markets.
Looking ahead, Srivastava expects a broader reallocation of capital toward metals and global equities by 2026, driven by valuation concerns and currency depreciation risks. “This could mark a seminal shift in how Indian investors allocate capital,” he said.