The brokerage’s optimism stems from the company’s strong execution capabilities, dominant position in the thermal power space, and the robust demand outlook for power in India.
JM Financial highlights that Adani Power has strategically built capacities to become India’s largest private sector thermal power producer, currently operating at 18.1GW. The company is now aiming to scale up its capacity to 41.9GW by FY32, with a combination of 10.8GW organic and 7.3GW inorganic capacity in place.
The brokerage notes that Adani Power has been the first to act in synchronising critical assets like the 4,620MW Mundra project within a 36-month timeline and pre-ordering key equipment to avoid delays.
The report further emphasises the indispensability of thermal power in meeting India’s projected peak power demand of over 700GW by 2047.
With the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, JM Financial believes grid reliability will rely on dependable base load thermal generation. India’s coal-fired generation capacity is estimated to reach 340GW by 2047, with incremental additions of 137GW required to meet this goal.
In this context, Adani Power’s early positioning and aggressive capacity build-out offer a significant edge.On financial metrics, JM Financial expects EBITDA per MW to rise from Rs 13 million/MW in FY25 to Rs 18 million/MW by FY32. Net debt/EBITDA is projected to climb from 1.6x in FY25 to 3.0x by FY29, given the incremental debt for capital expenditure of Rs 2 trillion over FY25–32.
However, this is expected to moderate back to 1.6x by FY31 as operational capacity comes online.
The brokerage anticipates Adani Power to deliver a revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 15%/18% during FY25–28, driven by strong operating performance and capacity expansion. Superior metrics such as a 71% plant load factor (PLF) and 91% plant availability factor (PAF), along with secured project components, have strengthened the case for sustained earnings growth.
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