Speaking to ET Now, Sameer Dalal, CEO, Natverlal & Sons Stockbrokers struck a measured tone, urging investors to resist knee-jerk reactions. “So, honestly, this is not the time to sell. Is it the time to buy? I think it is, but in small parts is what I have been saying for quite some time,” he said, advocating a staggered approach to fresh investments.
Dalal recommended deploying capital gradually, suggesting that investors commit only 10–15% of their intended allocation at a time. “Is it a time to sell? I will say no because we are at a very deep distress kind of situation,” he added, while cautioning that a prolonged escalation in geopolitical tensions could alter that stance.
The current correction, he believes, should not be viewed as a fleeting window. “No, it will not be limited opportunities to buy. Should the correction be bought? Yes,” Dalal noted, adding that the next few months could present a sustained accumulation phase rather than a quick rebound.
A key factor weighing on markets is the ripple effect of crude supply disruptions. According to Dalal, the real impact is yet to fully reflect in corporate earnings. “The pain that you are going to see because of not being able to receive our crude and then make further downstream products of the crude is all going to start factoring into the numbers only in Q1,” he explained.
In the near term, volatility is likely to remain elevated. “Right now we will be very volatile while the news flows are there. But once that ends, the volatility will come down,” he said. However, he expects markets to stay under pressure even after volatility eases, especially if earnings disappoint. “Over the next three months is the opportunity to keep accumulating. Hence, I am saying go in a staggered manner for investments of 15% and those amounts over a period of time.”
Sectorally, Dalal flagged immediate risks in industries heavily dependent on crude derivatives. “The ones that will get hit immediately will be the ones who are using crude derivatives as their raw materials,” he said, pointing to segments such as paints, tyres, adhesives, and packaging.While inflationary pressures will spill over into other sectors through higher logistics costs, he noted that margin compression will be more severe in crude-linked industries. More concerning, however, is the growing strain on supply chains.
Dalal highlighted that many companies are operating with lean inventories, leaving little room to absorb disruptions. “The sense I am getting is they are all sitting on very tight inventory levels now. So, if the inventories do not come through, if production does not pick up in India, then they are going to have to start shutting plants,” he said. Such shutdowns, he warned, could amplify the damage as operating leverage turns negative.
The stress is already visible in parts of the economy. “SMEs and MSMEs who work on very tight supply chains of 10-day inventory and 15-day inventory are already out of stock,” Dalal revealed, citing industry conversations.
Even larger players, despite having slightly better buffers, are not immune. “We have stock of about 15 to 25 days and if we are not able to replenish it quickly, we too are going to start shutting,” he quoted from a company management interaction.
As the situation evolves, the message from Dalal remains clear: avoid panic selling, stay cautious, and use volatility to build positions gradually. In a market gripped by uncertainty, discipline—not speed—may prove to be the biggest advantage.