The estimates of BofA, ICICI Securities, Centrum Broking and JM Financial have been taken into account.
Here’s what the estimates point to:
BofA
BofA expects the revenue to increase 0.6% on a sequential basis to Rs 11,080 crore while rising 5.4% on a year-on-year basis. The net losses are likely to narrow to Rs 6,460 crore on a YOY and QoQ basis, it said. The Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) Rs 4,600 crore, down 1.3% QoQ and up 9.4%.
Investors should be mindful of the possibility of a further market share loss and higher than anticipated competition, leading to weaker VIL positioning & further pressure on VIL’s balance sheet.
BofA also lists upside risks like improved traction and market share gains in 4G/5G subs, along with better-than-expected operational leverage benefits.
ICICI Securities
ICICI Securities sees losses widening on a YoY basis to Rs 7,141 crore, but lower from Q4FY25. The topline may grow 1.1% QoQ and 6% YoY. Vodafone Idea’s Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) is likely to stand at Rs 166, up from Rs 164 in Q4FY25 and Rs 146 in Q1FY25. It has a ‘Hold’ rating for a price target of Rs 7.
Centrum Broking
The company’s net loss is projected to widen to Rs 7,031 crore on a year-on-year basis while narrowing sequentially. Revenue for the quarter is estimated at Rs 11,144 crore, marking a 6% YoY growth and a modest 1.2% QoQ rise, aided by slight ARPU improvements.
On the operating front, EBITDA is expected at Rs 4,724 crore, an increase of 12.4% YoY and 1.4% QoQ. Margins are also forecast to improve, with EBITDA margin seen at 42.4%, expanding by 238 basis points YoY and 8 bps QoQ.
“Vodafone Idea is expected to report a decline of 1.5 million subscribers QoQ to 197 million, with growth in ARPU of 2% QoQ to Rs 167/month, led by ongoing migration of users from 2G to 4G technology and higher number of days during the quarter. The management commentary on their ongoing capex activity would be keenly watched,” a note by Centrum said.
It has a ‘Reduce’ rating for a price target of Rs 7.
Also Read: Vodafone Idea’s 60% slump has more bearish undertones as analysts sound warning ahead of Q1 earnings
JM Financial
The telecom operator’s net loss is projected to widen to Rs 7,145 crore on a YoY basis while narrowing QoQ. The revenue is estimated at Rs 11,355 crore, up 6% YoY and 1.1% QoQ, supported by a healthier subscriber mix and gradual average revenue per user (ARPU) gains.
EBITDA is expected at Rs 4,742 crore, marking a 12.8% YoY rise and a 1.8% QoQ increase
ARPU, a key industry metric, is seen at Rs 167, up 14% YoY and 1.6% QoQ.
JM estimates overall subscribers loss of 0.9 million but MBB (mobile broadband) subs gain 1 million.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)