Commenting on the stock’s technical charts, Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking said that the stock has broken its rising trendline on the weekly timeframe, retested the same, and is now consolidating having witnessed notable selling pressure in recent sessions.
The decline has pushed the Vodafone shares below their 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) of Rs 7.1 and 7.6, respectively. It has also traded with very high volatility with Trendlyne suggesting its 1-year beta of 1.5.
“On the daily timeframe, the formation of consecutive bearish candlesticks suggests the possibility of a fresh breakdown. Technically, it is trading below its key moving averages—the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs—signaling a weakening trend and bearish market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also declined sharply to 34.89, approaching the oversold zone and reflecting increasing bearish momentum,” Shinde said. If the stock falls further, key support levels of Rs 6.26 and Rs 5.72 will be triggered.
Anuj Gupta, who is Director at Ya Wealth Global Research also sees Vodafone looking down the barrel with strong support at Rs 6 A breakdown below this level could test levels up to 3, he warned. “We are not expecting any recovery in this scrip,” he opines.
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Q1 expectations
BofA expects the revenue to increase 0.6% on a sequential basis to Rs 11,080 crore while rising 5.4% on a year-on-year basis. The net losses are likely to narrow to Rs 6,460 crore on a YOY and QoQ basis, it said. The Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) Rs 4,600 crore, down 1.3% QoQ and up 9.4%.Investors should be mindful of the possibility of a further market share loss and higher than anticipated competition leading to weaker VIL positioning & further pressure on VIL’s balance sheet.BofA also lists upside risks like improved traction and market share gains in 4G/5G subs along with better than expected operational leverage benefits.
ICICI Securities see losses widening on a YoY basis to Rs 7,141 crore but lower from Q4FY25. The topline may grow 1.1% QoQ and 6% YoY. It has a ‘Hold’ rating for a price target of Rs 7.
A favourable outcome could trigger the stock.
Shinde, who sees immediate resistance at Rs 6.87, expects a sustained move to push the prices towards Rs 7.62. “Any meaningful recovery would require a decisive breakout above this resistance to confirm a potential trend reversal. Given the current weak technical structure and prevailing bearish sentiment, investors and traders are advised to remain cautious and wait for clear price action signals or reversal patterns before initiating new positions,” he cautioned.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)