Domestic mutual funds have consistently increased their exposure to Vodafone Idea over the last two quarters. Their holding has risen from 3.88% in June to 4.55% in September, and further to 5.34% in the December quarter, signaling growing institutional confidence.
Adding to the buzz, billionaire industrialist and Vodafone Idea promoter Kumar Mangalam Birla recently increased his personal stake in the company through open market purchases.
Between January 30 and February 1, Birla acquired a total of 4.09 crore shares. This included 2.21 crore shares on January 30 at an average price of Rs 10.95 per share, representing about a 8% discount to the today’s closing price of Rs 11.85. He also bought 1.88 crore shares on February 1 at an average price of Rs 11.13 per share, reflecting a about 6.5% discount.
The total transaction accounts for approximately 0.03% of the company’s outstanding equity. As of December 2025, Birla held 1.94 crore shares (a 0.02% stake) in Vodafone Idea, while the overall promoter group owns 25.5% of the telecom operator.
In its third-quarter earnings report, Vodafone Idea reported a net loss of Rs 5,286 crore, an improvement from the Rs 5,524 crore loss recorded in the previous quarter. The narrowing of losses signals a gradual stabilisation in the company’s financial performance.
Revenue for the quarter rose 1.1% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 11,323 crore. EBITDA increased 2.8% to Rs 4,817 crore, while the EBITDA margin improved to 42.5%, up from 41.8% in Q2.Overall, the numbers indicate steady operational progress, although achieving profitability remains a longer-term challenge for the telecom operator.
Motilal Oswal maintains ‘Neutral’ rating
Following the results, Motilal Oswal revised its revenue estimates for FY27–28 upward by around 4%, driven by an expected 6% improvement in ARPU due to a better subscriber mix.
The brokerage updated its financial projections and now estimates pre-IND AS EBITDA at Rs 104 billion for FY27 and Rs 117 billion for FY28. Despite the improved outlook, it has maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock and revised its target price downward to Rs 10 from Rs 11.
The revised valuation implies around 13x FY28E EV/EBITDA and 21.5x FY28E pre-IND AS EBITDA, which the brokerage highlights as a significant premium compared to larger industry peers.
Vi’s management has laid out an ambitious turnaround strategy aimed at restoring growth momentum. The company is targeting double-digit revenue growth and plans to triple its cash EBITDA between FY26 and FY29, from approximately Rs 90 billion in FY26.
To support this revival, Vi intends to undertake a substantial capital expenditure program of Rs 450 billion over FY26–29. The investment will focus on expanding 4G coverage across 17 priority circles and rolling out seamless 5G services in urban markets. Nearly 70% of the planned capex is earmarked for radio and tower expansion.
However, analysts caution that the success of this revival plan hinges on several key factors. These include the company’s ability to raise debt, continued tariff hikes, stable subscriber trends, rational competitive behavior in the industry, and supportive regulatory measures — particularly relief on spectrum payments.
Importantly, not all of these variables are within management’s control, and any aggressive push by Vi could prompt stronger competitive responses from rivals.
Stock Performance & Technical View
Vodafone Idea’s share price has risen about 5% over the past month. It is currently trading with a market cap of Rs 1,28,600 crore.
Technically, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 57.8, suggesting neutral momentum, as readings below 30 indicate oversold conditions while those above 70 point to overbought levels. Additionally, the stock is currently trading above all eight of its key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), reflecting a bullish technical setup.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)