Brokerages remain constructive based on demand recovery in November–December, improved capacity utilisation and easing cost pressures, though margin estimates vary.
The topline is seen in the range of Rs 20,600 crore to Rs 21,715 crore.
The PAT estimates fall in a wide range on a year-on-year basis, with Emkay expecting a 1.3% decline, while YES Securities sees a 13% growth in the company’s adjusted net profit in the quarter under review.
The estimates of YES Securities, HDFC Securities, ElaraCapital and Emkay Research have been considered.
The Aditya Birla Group company will announce its October-December quarter earnings on Saturday.
Here’s what brokerages expect:
1) PAT– YES Securities: Adjusted PAT at Rs 1,533 crore, up 13% YoY and up 25% QoQ.
— HDFC Securities expects adjusted PAT of Rs 1,462 crore, up 7.5% YoY and 19% QoQ.
— ElaraCapital sees PAT at Rs 1,480 crore, up 9% YoY and 20% QoQ
— Emkay Research is relatively cautious with PAT seen at Rs 1,454 crore, marginally down 1.3% YoY but up 17% QoQ.
2) Revenue
— YES Securities estimates net sales of Rs 21,715 crore, up 22% YoY and 11% QoQ.
— ElaraCapital projects revenue at Rs 21,380 crore, up 20% YoY and 9% QoQ.
— HDFC Securities: 20,618 crore, up 16% and up 5.2% QoQ
— Emkay Research: Rs 20,600 crore, up 20% YY and up 5% QoQ
3) EBITDA
The Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) is likely to post double-digit growth YoY and QoQ.
— HDFC Securities expects EBITDA of Rs 3,506 crore, up 21% YoY and 13% QoQ.
— YES Securities sees EBITDA at Rs 3,499 crore.
— ElaraCapital: Rs 3,460 crore, up 19% YoY and 12% QoQ.
— Emkay Research: Rs 3,384 crore, up 17% YoY and up 9% QoQ.
4) EBITDA margin
Margins are expected to improve sequentially on easing cost pressures, though estimates differ.
— HDFC Securities pegs EBITDA margin at 17%, up 70 bps YoY and 120 bps QoQ.
— Emkay Research, however, sees margin at 16.4%, down 36 bps YoY and 65 bps QoQ, citing softer realisations.
5) Volumes
Volume growth remains the key highlight in the quarter gone by.
— YES Securities expects volumes to rise 24% YoY and 11% QoQ, with capacity utilisation improving to 78%, aided by better utilisation at ICL and Kesoram.
— HDFC Securities and Emkay estimate sales volumes at 36.5–36.7 MT, implying 15–21% YoY growth.
— Emkay notes that while volumes remain robust, blended realisations could dip sequentially, keeping EBITDA per tonne largely flat.
Disclaimer: (Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)