With a target price of Rs Rs 4,100, the brokerage implies an upside potential of 21% from current market levels. The international brokerage highlighted superior volume visibility compared to peers, driven by upcoming premium products such as RR 300, RTX 450 and Norton.
It also noted that the company is better positioned to pass on raw material inflation, while its volumes have historically seen relatively limited impact from metal and Brent crude inflation. In addition, TVS Motor is expected to benefit from a margin tailwind of around 35 basis points from the PLI scheme in FY28E compared to FY26E.
The brokerage expects volume growth of 14%, 11% and 10% for FY27E, FY28E and FY29E, respectively, compared with industry growth of 7%, 7% and 5%. This outlook has led to upward EPS revisions for FY26E to FY28E of up to 8%. TVS Motor is also seen as a top quartile volume growth beneficiary within the India autos coverage universe, which could support further upside in valuations.
The brokerage has applied an unchanged 33x P/E multiple to the core business, in line with the five-year average, based on its Q5–Q8 EPS estimates. This compares with the company’s current 33x forward P/E multiple and a historical peak of 39x. Its FY28 EPS and EBITDA estimates are 3% and 6% above Bloomberg consensus, respectively.
However, key risks include ABS implementation, crude oil and commodity inflation, dependence on rare-earth supply chains from China, and competition across electric two-wheelers, scooters and premium motorcycles. Key catalysts include launches of Apache and Norton products, improving profitability in the electric two-wheeler segment, and the qualification of more models under the PLI scheme, where the company is considered well-positioned compared to peers.
TVS Motor March sales
The company reported total monthly sales of 519,358 units in March 2026, registering a growth of 25% compared to 414,687 units in March 2025.
In the two-wheeler segment, total sales rose 25% to 498,134 units from 400,120 units a year ago. Domestic two-wheeler sales also grew at the same pace, increasing 25% to 372,383 units from 297,622 units. Within this, motorcycle sales climbed 18% to 232,788 units, while scooter sales saw a stronger growth of 31%, rising to 217,624 units.
Electric vehicle sales recorded a sharp increase of 44%, with volumes rising to 38,877 units from 26,935 units in the corresponding month last year. The company’s international business posted a 25% growth, with total sales increasing to 141,443 units from 113,464 units. Two-wheeler exports grew 23% to 125,751 units. Three-wheeler sales registered a robust growth of 46%, rising to 21,224 units in March 2026 from 14,567 units in March 2025.
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