Based on the average estimates of five brokerages, Titan’s consolidated revenue is projected to rise about 29% year-on-year (YoY) in Q3FY26, while profit after tax is seen growing roughly 35%. The jewellery segment is once again expected to anchor performance, aided by healthy festive footfalls and sustained demand through the wedding season.
Kotak Equities expects a sharp acceleration in jewellery growth during the quarter. The brokerage is modelling around 34% year-on-year (YoY) growth in both domestic and standalone jewellery sales, a significant jump from the 18.8% YoY growth reported in Q2FY26. It attributes this pickup to a strong festive season, sustained momentum in the post-festive wedding period, and more than 65% YoY inflation in gold prices in rupee terms during the quarter. Kotak estimates like-to-like growth in standalone jewellery at about 27%.
However, the brokerage flags a clear mix-related headwind. It expects the share of studded jewellery in the standalone business, excluding CaratLane, to decline by around 200 basis points year-on-year. As a result, studded jewellery growth is pegged at 22% YoY, even as gold coin sales are expected to surge nearly 90%, lifting their mix by roughly 500 basis points to 16–17%. While this shift supports topline growth, gold coins typically carry lower margins.
Beyond jewellery, Kotak expects healthy momentum across other segments. The watches division is estimated to grow around 17% YoY, driven by robust demand in the analogue segment, while eyewear revenue is seen rising about 10% YoY.
On profitability, Kotak estimates like-to-like recurring standalone jewellery EBIT to rise 23% YoY, but margins are expected to contract by around 90 basis points to 10.3%. The brokerage attributes the margin pressure to an unfavourable mix from higher gold coin sales, elevated gold prices weighing on studded jewellery gross contribution, and increased marketing spends. After factoring in higher depreciation and finance costs, Kotak expects recurring PAT to grow about 22% YoY.
Motilal Oswal, meanwhile, models a slightly more conservative 28% standalone revenue growth excluding bullion, with Tanishq like-to-like growth estimated at around 23% in Q3FY26. While it also expects margin pressure in the jewellery segment, Motilal sees the decline as relatively contained. Standalone jewellery EBIT margins excluding bullion are projected to fall by around 50 basis points YoY to 10.7%, largely due to the higher contribution of gold coins amid rising gold prices.Motilal is more constructive on CaratLane, where revenue is expected to grow around 30% YoY, with EBIT margins improving marginally by about 20 basis points to 11.9%. It also expects healthy double-digit growth across watches, eyewear and other businesses, lending support to consolidated performance.
Nuvama takes a broader view, expecting Titan to post around 29% revenue growth in Q3FY26, with core jewellery growth estimated at close to 30% despite a higher base. The brokerage pegs adjusted EBIT margins for the jewellery division at around 11%, factoring in continued investments in growth and brand-building initiatives. Nuvama believes Titan’s scale, brand strength and execution capabilities should help it absorb part of the cost pressures without a sharp hit to profitability.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)