In the early hours of January 3, 2026, a series of coordinated explosions shattered the uneasy calm of Caracas. Military installations were struck across the capital, along with some of the most symbolically charged sites of Chavismo, including the mausoleum of former president Hugo Chávez. By the end of the night, at least thirty-two Cuban soldiers were confirmed dead. Within hours, Nicolás Maduro who had ruled Venezuela for over thirteen years following a controversial constitutional reform in 2018 and a widely denounced fraudulent election in 2024was no longer in power.
U.S. aircraft, operating under circumstances that remain deeply opaque, penetrated Venezuelan airspace with remarkable ease. They captured the head of state, removed him from the country, and exited without facing meaningful resistance from Venezuelan defenses. Shortly thereafter, Washington confirmed that Maduro had been arrested and would face charges related to drug trafficking. The regime had fallen but what followed was not a clear transition, but a dangerous interregnum.
At a press conference later that day, President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the operation and announced that the United States would temporarily oversee Venezuela’s transition, including control over critical resources such as oil revenues. Trump stated unequivocally that no member of the Chavista establishment could remain in government. Yet, in the same breath, he dismissed opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado as unsuitable to lead the country, arguing that she lacked sufficient prestige and broad-based support within Venezuelan society.
That contradiction created immediate uncertainty. For several hours, it remained unclear who was effectively in charge of the country. In a political system dominated by veto players above all the armed forces and the intelligence services such ambiguity carried serious risks. Venezuela’s coercive apparatus does not rely solely on the regular military, but also on irregular civilian militias known as colectivos, many of them deeply embedded in criminal and drug trafficking networks. A prolonged power vacuum, or the sudden elevation of a leader without military backing, could have triggered rapid destabilization.
The uncertainty ended abruptly. Only hours after ruling out any continuation of Chavismo, Trump announced that Washington would support Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s new president. A central figure within the Chavista system, Rodríguez had previously served as foreign minister and as head of SEBIN, the country’s feared intelligence service trained with Cuban assistance. Despite earlier warnings that a second strike could be considered if she failed to align with U.S. interests, Trump later stated that Rodríguez had remained in contact with U.S. officials and had guaranteed cooperation. “We will soon determine whether the existing sanctions against her will remain in place or be lifted,” he added.
Crucially, Rodríguez also secured the backing of Venezuela’s most important internal power broker: the armed forces. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López publicly endorsed the new political status quo, calling on citizens to return to normal life. “The homeland continues,” he declared a phrase that signaled continuity rather than rupture.From Washington’s perspective, the choice was pragmatic rather than ideological. Rodríguez’s long career within Chavismo gives her the ability to secure loyalty from key veto players and to manage the security apparatus in the short term. That stability is essential for the United States as it begins renegotiating Venezuela’s oil sector and recalibrating sanctions policy. Rubio openly argued that Machado and other opposition leaders, after years abroad, lack the domestic leverage and institutional control necessary to guarantee order.
Yet stability remains far from assured. On Monday night, violent protests erupted across Caracas, targeting symbols of the new political order. Unidentified drones were reported flying over the presidential complex, raising concerns about internal fractures, sabotage, or external interference. The presence of Iranian, Cuban, Russian, and Chinese intelligence networks deeply entrenched over years of authoritarian ruleadds another layer of volatility.
Even with U.S. backing, military loyalty, and the tacit support of the MAGA establishment, President Delcy Rodríguez faces a formidable challenge. Her government must neutralize irregular armed actors, contain transnational criminal networks, and restore a minimum threshold of public order and legitimacy all while navigating Washington’s strategic demands.
For now, Venezuela’s future remains suspended between order and chaos. Maduro is gone, but the system that sustained him endures. Whether Rodríguez can transform continuity into control or whether the country slides into renewed instability will determine whether January 2026 marks the beginning of Venezuela’s recovery, or merely the next chapter in its long tragedy.
The author is International political consultant, Buenos Aires