TCS shares rise ahead of Q2FY26 results today – News Air Insight

Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), India’s largest IT services company, jumped 0.7% to their day’s high of Rs 3,047.80 on the BSE in early trade on Thursday, October 9, ahead of the company’s Q2FY26 results announcement later in the day.

Brokerages have released a wide range of estimates for the quarter, projecting net profit growth between 3.7% and 9.6% year-on-year (YoY). Profit after tax (PAT) is expected to fall in the range of Rs 12,346 crore to Rs 13,058 crore, while revenue estimates span from Rs 64,200 crore to Rs 65,700 crore, reflecting a YoY increase of 0.7% to 2.2%.

The brokerage consensus includes projections from Nomura, Nuvama Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Axis Securities, and HDFC Securities. Among these, Nuvama appears most optimistic, pegging TCS’s PAT at Rs 13,058 crore, up 9.6% YoY and 2.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).

In contrast, HDFC Securities projects a more conservative PAT of Rs 12,346 crore, reflecting a 3.7% YoY rise but a 3.2% sequential decline. Axis Securities estimates PAT at Rs 12,874 crore, an increase of 7.7% YoY and 0.4% QoQ.

Revenue estimates reflect a relatively stable performance, with Nomura expecting Rs 64,259 crore (up 1.4% YoY, 2.7% QoQ), Nuvama at Rs 64,738 crore (up 0.7% YoY, 2.1% QoQ), Motilal Oswal at Rs 65,400 crore (up 1.8% YoY, 3.1% QoQ), Axis Securities at Rs 65,682 crore (up 2.2% YoY, 3.5% QoQ), and HDFC Securities at Rs 65,045 crore (up 1.2% YoY, 2.5% QoQ).

Nomura attributes its relatively muted growth projection to a lower BSNL contribution and macroeconomic headwinds, while Axis Securities highlights strength from the BFSI, Hi-Tech, and cross-currency tailwinds.On the EBIT front, estimates again vary, with Nuvama forecasting Rs 15,970 crore (up 3.3% YoY, 2.9% QoQ), Axis Securities estimating Rs 15,928 crore (up 3% YoY, 2.7% QoQ), and HDFC Securities projecting Rs 15,849 crore (up 2.5% YoY, 2.2% QoQ). EBIT margin projections indicate mixed expectations. Nomura anticipates a margin of 24.1% (up 40 bps YoY, flat QoQ), while Nuvama expects a slight improvement to 24.7% (up 60 bps YoY, 20 bps QoQ).Meanwhile, HDFC Securities forecasts a margin of 24.4% (up 30 bps YoY, down 9 bps QoQ), and Motilal Oswal expects a 20 bps QoQ decline, citing wage hikes, talent investments, and lower utilisation as key factors.

Brokerages have also outlined key monitorables ahead of the earnings. Nomura will be closely tracking restructuring impacts, client discretionary spending amid U.S. macro volatility, cost takeout initiatives, BFSI vertical growth, and deal wins valued at $7–9 billion excluding mega deals. Nuvama is expected to watch employee restructuring developments.

Motilal Oswal has flagged near-term demand, tech budgets, BFSI performance, GenAI transition, pricing trends, and delivery realignments as areas of focus. Axis Securities will be monitoring the H1-B visa impact along with BSNL advance purchase order updates.

The broader industry environment has been marked by macroeconomic headwinds and pricing pressure, with clients remaining cautious on large or discretionary tech spending. While analysts expect TCS’s margins to remain stable on a YoY basis, some foresee a sequential decline.

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Brokerages will also be tuning in to TCS’s commentary on H1-B visa fee hikes, future guidance, and deal momentum as key cues from the management.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)