The stock has consolidated in a tight Rs 166–175 band following its strong year-to-date gains, and analysts say a breakout above the upper end could trigger the next leg higher.
“Tata Steel has been trading in a narrow range over the past few sessions, indicating a tug of war between buyers and sellers,” said Kunal Kamble, Senior Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza. “For the stock to regain upward momentum, it needs to close above Rs 175. The increase in buying volume on up days enhances the probability of a breakout, with confirmation above 175 likely to attract more buyers.”
Kamble added that the stock is well-placed above its major EMAs, reflecting a bullish stance, while momentum indicators support the uptrend. “From a directional perspective, DI+ is trading above DI-, supporting the bullish view, and ADX above DI indicates strength in the ongoing upmove,” he said. “The stock can be considered for accumulation above 175, with Rs 166 as strong support, for a potential move towards Rs 200–225.”
Broader tailwinds
Optimism over potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts has lifted global commodity prices this year by weakening the dollar and boosting risk appetite. The metals complex—from steel and copper to zinc and aluminium—has rallied as investors seek inflation hedges and anticipate tighter supply conditions.
The rally has been particularly supportive for steel producers like Tata Steel. Media reports indicate that the European Union is preparing to double tariffs on imported steel and slash import quotas by nearly half. The proposal, set to be unveiled this week, would raise duties on volumes above quota levels to as high as 50%, a move analysts say could improve realizations for European steelmakers.
Europe and China in focus
According to Bloomberg, the European Union’s draft plan mirrors U.S. and Canadian tariffs and aims to “minimise the risk of trade diversion.” Steel groups have been urging Brussels to halve current import quotas and raise duties, arguing that existing limits exceed demand levels.Meanwhile, expectations of deeper Chinese steel production cuts could further tighten global supply. China, which produces more than half of the world’s steel, is under pressure to curb excess output amid weak domestic demand and global trade tensions. Confirmation of such cuts could strengthen the outlook for steel prices and benefit exporters like Tata Steel.
Analyst view
Tata Steel stock is forming a long-term rounding bottom and is now testing a key resistance level at Rs 175, said Amruta Shinde, Research Analyst at Choice Broking. She added, “A decisive breakout above this level on strong volumes could trigger a near-term rally toward Rs 185–195.”
Shinde noted that technical indicators are constructive, with the RSI at 56.8 reflecting moderate strength, and the stock trading above all major EMAs (20/50/100/200-day), underscoring robust short-term and medium-term trends.
She said that while “the recent rally has been fueled by broad metals strength, expectations of U.S. rate cuts, EU tariff hikes on Chinese steel, and potential output curbs in China, much of this has already been priced in. However, any confirmation of deeper Chinese production cuts could provide further upside,” Shinde added, noting that the near-term bias remains positive if Tata Steel sustains a close above Rs 175, with range-bound action expected below this level.
Regulatory overhang
Even as investors focus on technical levels and macro tailwinds, Tata Steel is dealing with a regulatory overhang. On October 3, the company received a demand notice of Rs 2,410.9 crore from the Office of the Deputy Director of Mines, Jajpur, Odisha, for an alleged shortfall in chrome ore dispatch from its Sukinda Chromite Block.
Tata Steel stated that the demand “lacks justification or a substantive basis” and plans to challenge the notice both on law and merits. The company also intends to pursue suitable legal remedies before appropriate forums.
A similar demand of Rs 1,902.72 crore raised last year has already been stayed by the Odisha High Court, which, through orders dated August 14 and September 2, 2025, restrained authorities from taking coercive action until further hearing.
The road ahead
Tata Steel was among the top gainers on the Nifty50 last week following reports of the European Union’s proposed tariff hike. With macro drivers aligning and the technical setup tightening, traders are closely watching whether the stock can decisively break Rs 175, a level that could determine if the 2025 rally has further upside.
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