This will be its first earnings post the demerger of its passenger vehicles business. Its commercial vehicles business has been listed as a separate entity, and the company has retained Tata Motors (TMCV) as the name of the entity.
Brokerage estimates for Tata Motors’ profit after tax (PAT) vary significantly, ranging from a low of Rs 2,787 crore given by Nuvama Institutional Equities to a high of Rs 4,401 crore by Kotak Institutional Equities.
Estimates of YES Securities and ElaraCapital have also been taken into account.
As for the revenue, Kotak sees a 3.5% jump in the company’s standalone revenue, while the others see a decline in topline of up to 7.2% on a consolidated basis.
Investors should keep a track of the commentary around JLR and the demand outlook for the India PV business.Brokerages are likely to analyse the quarter based on these 5 metrics:
1) PAT
— Kotak Equities expects PAT at Rs 4,401 crore, up 31.7% YoY and 12.2% QoQ, driven by robust domestic performance and improved margins in the standalone business.
— Elara Capital pegs recurring PAT at Rs 4,171 crore, up 24.7% YoY and 4.8% QoQ.
– YES Securities: Rs 3,248 crore, down 8.7% YoY and down 21.6% QoQ
– Nuvama: Rs 2,787 crore, down 2% YoY and down 20% QOQ
2) Revenue
Tata Motors’ consolidated revenue is expected to stay muted due to lower JLR volumes and the lingering impact of the cyberattack, which disrupted production for nearly a month.
– Kotak Equities projects revenue at Rs 1,05,018 crore, up 3.5% YoY, supported by steady standalone business growth.
– Elara Capital: Rs 94,116 crore, down 7.2% YoY and down 9.9% QoQ
– Nuvama 99,135 crore, down 2% YoY and down 5% QoQ
– YES Securities expects an even sharper drop of 6.3% YoY to Rs 95,102 crore, led by the JLR slowdown.
Kotak expects standalone business revenues to grow 11% YoY, driven by 12% higher volumes despite a slight dip in average selling prices (ASPs). Meanwhile, consolidated revenue is expected to decline YoY, led by a fall in JLR volumes, Nuvama said.
3) EBITDA
Brokerages expect Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) to decline YoY due to pressure on JLR’s margins and an unfavourable mix.
– Kotak Equities estimates EBITDA at Rs 10,836 crore, down 7.2% YoY but up 11.4% QoQ.
This brokerage said that the EBITDA margin will increase by 170 bps YoY for the India business, driven by operating leverage benefits and favourable net pricing.
– Elara Capital: Rs 10,541 crore, down 13.3% YoY and up 3.1% QoQ
– Nuvama: Rs 8,656 crore, down 26% YoY and down 11% QoQ
– YES Securities: Rs 8,819 crore, down 223% YoY and down 4% QoQ
4) EBITDA margin
Margin performance is expected to stay under pressure, especially from JLR’s side, while domestic PV margins may show resilience due to cost control and a richer SUV mix.
Kotak Equities projects a consolidated EBITDA margin of 10.3%, down 119 bps YoY, but improving 100 bps QoQ.
It expects domestic PV EBITDA margins to rise by 10 bps YoY to 18%, aided by operating leverage and better product mix.
YES Securities expects margins at 9.3%, contracting 220 bps YoY.
Nuvama also anticipates margin contraction due to lower JLR contribution and mix deterioration.
Kotak estimates JLR EBIT margin at 4.7%, up 70 bps QoQ, supported by richer product mix but offset by higher tariffs and adverse FX movement (GBP appreciation vs USD).
5) Key monitorables
Brokerages will closely track JLR’s performance recovery post-cyberattack and its volume trajectory. Domestic PV business margin trend, especially in SUVs, will be watched amid rising ad spends and commodity pressures.
Also read: Eicher Motors Q2 Results: Cons PAT jumps 24% YoY to Rs 1,369 crore; revenue zooms 45%
Demand outlook for India PV and JLR segments, particularly in export markets and ASP movement and pricing discipline in the face of global macro headwinds are other key monitorables.
Investors should watch out for guidance on FY26-FY27 growth and margin outlook, especially post-JLR disruptions.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)