The listing follows Tata Motors’ separation of its passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle businesses, with October 14 marked as the record date for the demerger. Shareholders who held Tata Motors stock before that date are entitled to receive one share of TMLCV for every Tata Motors share held.
With Tata Motors’ pre-demerger stock closing at Rs 660.75 and the renamed Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd (TMPV) opening around Rs 400, the implied value for the CV arm stands near Rs 260.75 per share. Market participants expect the listing to attract strong institutional interest, though early trading may see sharp price swings as portfolios realign.
Strong listing buzz
Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, said TMLCV “is likely to list above the implied Rs 260–Rs 270 valuation, with market chatter suggesting a potential opening in the Rs 300–Rs 350 range.” He added that “the initial sessions could see sharp swings of 10–20%, as institutional and retail participants recalibrate portfolios post-demerger and price discovery sets in.”
Dasani expects institutions to dominate early trading. “Institutional interest is expected to dominate early trades, driven by dedicated industrial, logistics, and infrastructure-focused funds seeking India’s cyclical growth exposure. Retail appetite will follow once standalone financial clarity and debt allocation become visible,” he said.
Brokerages see value creation
Brokerages broadly agree that the split unlocks clearer valuation for Tata Motors’ two core businesses. ICICI Securities’ Pankaj Pandey said, “There should be value creation because what we are expecting for CV business is 11 times EV/EBITDA on FY27 basis, so that comes about Rs 300 odd because comparable peers are also getting similar multiples.”Nomura pegged fair values for TMPV and TMLCV almost equally, at Rs 367 and Rs 365, respectively, though it warned of “technical risk for the share price” amid index adjustments and portfolio realignments. YES Securities called the demerger a “value unlocking opportunity,” while Bonanza Research’s Khushi Mistry said the move “will lead to sharper business focus for both entities.”
Analysts bullish on CV arm
Brokerages, including Ambit Institutional Equities, see the commercial vehicle business as the near-term winner of the split. Ambit termed the move “a separation of value and growth propositions,” adding that “the CV business is better positioned to capitalise on the demerger” given its market leadership and steady cash generation. The brokerage expects “immediate value unlocking for CV,” with TMPV’s residual value likely to settle around Rs 380.
SBI Securities estimated TMLCV’s fair value between Rs 320–470, factoring in the company’s ongoing acquisition of Italy’s Iveco Group NV’s commercial vehicle operations for €3.8 billion—a deal analysts believe could transform Tata’s global presence.
Iveco deal seen as transformative
Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said the Iveco acquisition “could materially strengthen the medium-term growth outlook.” He added, “Iveco brings global scale, advanced technology, and diversified presence, while TMLCV adds cost-efficient manufacturing and a strong domestic base.”
According to management, Iveco is expected to generate “robust Free cash flow and target 20% RoCE.” Tiwari noted that the combined entity “will become the fourth largest player globally in the MHCV (>6 tonne) category.” With Iveco’s strong revenue base in Europe and the Americas, “a successful takeover could nearly triple commercial vehicle revenue from Rs 75,000 crore to over Rs 2 lakh crore,” he said.
Dasani of INVasset PMS called the Iveco transaction “a strategic edge” over peers such as Ashok Leyland, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Eicher, though he cautioned that integration costs could pressure near-term margins. “If executed well, the deal could transform TMLCV into a globally competitive CV powerhouse,” he said.
Industry tailwinds ahead
Tiwari expects India’s commercial vehicle sector to maintain steady growth in the next two years. “The Indian commercial vehicle sector is expected to experience a steady uptrend in FY26–27, on the back of increasing construction activity, higher freight availability, and revival in replacement demand,” he said.
He forecasts 3–5% growth in FY26, with medium and heavy vehicles benefiting from infrastructure spending and light commercial vehicles lifted by e-commerce expansion. “Ageing fleet and Government mandates will be the key drivers for replacement demand in country, especially in bus segment,” Tiwari said.
Near-term volatility likely
Analysts caution that while the demerger unlocks long-term structural value, initial price discovery may be bumpy. “The demerger does unlock structural value through sharper capital allocation and brand autonomy, though a part of it may already be reflected in Tata Motors’ adjusted valuations,” Dasani said.
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As trading begins on Wednesday, investors will be watching whether Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles Ltd can accelerate from a domestic market leader to a global contender and whether the Iveco deal and India’s CV recovery can give the new stock the horsepower it needs to stay ahead on Dalal Street.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)