Speaking to ET Now, Agrawal said the broader EPC (engineering, procurement and construction) pack has struggled over the past three to four quarters due to weak execution and project-level bottlenecks, particularly in government-linked schemes such as Jal Jeevan Mission.
NCC: Strong order book, but execution concerns
NCC had earlier guided for around 10% growth in FY26, but that outlook was withdrawn during its Q3 results amid operational headwinds.
“The key issues are execution delays and rising receivables from government projects,” Agrawal said. “That is the primary reason why earnings growth for FY26 may remain muted.”
The recent debarment by NHAI from participating in fresh road project tenders adds another layer of uncertainty. However, Agrawal expects the company to contest the ruling. “I am sure NCC will challenge the decision and some resolution should emerge,” he noted.
Despite near-term concerns, Agrawal pointed out that:
- NCC continues to sit on a robust order book
- The stock is trading at reasonable valuations
- Promoters have been buying shares from the open market
“These factors offer confidence that value exists at current levels,” he said. “But meaningful upside will depend on visible improvement in execution.”
For long-term investors, Agrawal suggests gradual accumulation rather than aggressive buying at this stage.
Reliance Industries: Accumulate on weakness
Turning to Reliance Industries, which has come under pressure and is hovering near ₹1,400 levels, Agrawal believes the stock presents a buying opportunity.“Muted sentiment may be weighing on the stock, but structurally the outlook remains strong,” he said. He expects the company’s non-oil and gas consumer-facing businesses to drive growth going forward.
In particular:
- A potential telecom tariff hike in June could provide an earnings kicker
- Retail and digital businesses remain key long-term growth engines
- Upstream oil and gas may see some near-term support from crude price spikes amid US-Iran tensions
- Agrawal pegs Reliance’s fair value in the next 12–18 months at ₹1,700 to ₹1,800.
“Any dip at current levels should be seen as a good accumulation opportunity,” he added.
Nifty Outlook: 25,000 as key support
With the Nifty slipping below 25,400 amid geopolitical tensions, Agrawal sees the 25,000 level as a crucial support zone.
“If markets correct further due to geopolitical tensions, 25,000 should emerge as strong support,” he said.
He noted that this was also the level seen prior to the India-US trade deal announcement, suggesting it may act as a technical and psychological floor for the index.
Bottom line
While NCC may face a muted FY26 due to execution challenges and regulatory overhang, long-term investors can consider staggered accumulation. Meanwhile, Reliance Industries appears better positioned structurally, with consumer businesses and telecom likely to drive earnings recovery over the next 12–18 months.
Markets may remain volatile in the near term, but strong support at 25,000 could help stabilise sentiment if geopolitical risks do not escalate further.