ETMarkets.comWhy this rally in inflows is different from past cycles
Azeez was pointed in drawing a contrast with previous episodes of retail enthusiasm. Past surges in SIP flows were often fuelled by recency bias — investors chasing strong recent returns. This time, he argued, the dynamic is structurally different. SEBI’s investor education programme, launched in January 2013, has since seen over a billion dollars spent on financial literacy. The result: retail investors are now buying on a forward-looking thesis rather than a rear-view mirror. With markets actually down over the recent period, the inflows arriving now carry a very different character — patient, informed, and dip-buying rather than momentum-chasing.
“People are not coming because past performance was good. Past performance has been disastrous to say the least over the last one-and-a-half years”
The smallcap signal that stood out
When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out in early 2022, smallcap funds saw net outflows as investors panicked and retreated to safety. March 2026 told the opposite story. Using a proprietary daily flow-tracking algorithm, Azeez confirmed that smallcap funds recorded positive net inflows on every single working day of the month — with the category pulling in approximately ₹6,000 crore at near the lowest market levels of the past year. He described this as one of the most encouraging behavioural shifts he has observed, with investors actively buying at depressed valuations rather than fleeing them.
The broader equity net flow picture reinforced the trend, rising sharply to ₹40,000 crore from ₹29,000 crore the previous month — a jump Azeez called a “brilliant sign,” reflecting HNI and retail investors alike deploying capital rationally when valuations look more attractive.
DIIs still have the firepower
A critical question in any FII-selling environment is whether domestic institutions have the cash to absorb the pressure. Azeez’s opening-versus-closing balance analysis of equity fund cash positions suggests the answer is yes: DII cash reserves began March at roughly ₹2.1 lakh crore and ended at approximately ₹1.75–1.8 lakh crore — meaning domestic funds deployed some capital but retained the vast majority of their dry powder. With FIIs selling and DIIs buying, the cushion underneath India’s market remains far from exhausted.