Both metals have delivered eye-catching gains, but their trajectories and volatility profiles are beginning to diverge. Gold has staged a blistering run of its own, rising nearly 60% in 2025 and adding another 20% so far in 2026. Silver, however, has raced ahead, soaring 170% in 2025 and jumping another 60% in the first month of 2026 alone. While the two have been buoyed by similar macroeconomic and geopolitical tailwinds, market participants say the nature of the rally has changed, calling for a more selective and disciplined approach going forward.
Geopolitical uncertainty remains the dominant driver behind the surge in bullion prices. A weakening US dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, and heightened global tensions have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Recent trade-related threats from US President Donald Trump, including higher tariffs on Canada and South Korea covering sectors such as automobiles, lumber, and pharmaceuticals, have added to uncertainty. These developments, combined with broader global flashpoints, have reinforced demand for gold and silver alike.
Jigar Trivedi of IndusInd Securities said Gold remains suitable for most investors due to its steadier nature, while silver is best left to those who understand and can tolerate violent volatility. According to Trivedi, silver has already digested a lot of positive news, leaving upside potential intact but accompanied by sharp swings. Gold, on the other hand, tends to deliver during periods of uncertainty, and the current run may still have legs.
He pointed to supportive macro fundamentals—including the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts, persistently negative real yields, and ongoing central bank diversification—as key pillars underpinning prices. Trivedi also flagged tightening physical supply, particularly in silver, alongside robust industrial demand, as structural drivers behind the rally.
“At present, it is apt to say there is still meaningful upside,” Trivedi said, adding that while a correction cannot be ruled out, no immediate triggers are visible.
IndusInd Securities expects Comex gold prices to move in a range of $4,800 per ounce to $5,500 per ounce, with MCX gold seen between Rs 1,45,000 per 10 grams and Rs 1,75,000 per 10 grams. For silver, the brokerage sees Comex prices between $95 and $130 per ounce, while MCX silver could trade between Rs 3,00,000 per kg and Rs 4,00,000 per kg. Given silver’s sharp run-up, Trivedi believes it may be prudent to wait for a correction before adding fresh exposure, while gold’s slow and steady climb makes it a more stable choice at current levels.Motilal Oswal Financial Services echoed a similar view, arguing that the sharp rally in silver has altered the near-term risk-reward equation for precious metals. The brokerage said gold now appears relatively better placed as macro uncertainty rises. While it maintained a positive stance on silver’s longer-term structural outlook, supported by industrial demand and supply constraints, Motilal Oswal warned that the near-term setup looks increasingly imbalanced after the rally.
The firm noted that silver volatility has expanded, with wider daily price swings, while gold continues to trade in a more stable trend, improving its appeal for investors focused on risk management. Motilal Oswal also flagged tightness in physical silver markets but cautioned that elevated premiums may signal stretched pricing.
Another indicator suggesting silver’s outperformance may be peaking is the compression in the gold-silver ratio. Motilal Oswal said the ratio has fallen to around 50 at the start of 2026, from pandemic-era highs near 127. This, the brokerage noted, indicates that a significant portion of silver’s catch-up trade has already played out. The shift is also visible in investor flows. Global silver exchange-traded funds have seen outflows of more than 3 million ounces since the start of 2026, even as prices remain elevated. In contrast, global gold ETFs have continued to attract steadier inflows, reflecting a rotation toward safer havens.
Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead at VT Markets, said gold is better suited as a core portfolio holding due to its defensive nature, support from central bank buying, and resilience during periods of macro uncertainty. Silver, he said, tends to outperform during strong growth or risk-on phases because of its industrial demand, but that same feature also makes it more volatile.
Maxwell said the outlook for 2026 remains firm but nuanced. Gold’s rally to record highs reflects strong defensive positioning driven by a weaker dollar and tariff-related risks. Silver’s surge captures both safe-haven demand and industrial consumption, though volatility remains elevated. While neither metal appears to be topping out, Maxwell expects prices to oscillate as investors book profits and react to macro developments.
Not all analysts are advocating a clear tilt toward one metal alone. Aamir Makda, Commodity and Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, believes a dual-metal strategy can still play a role in portfolios amid global uncertainty and sluggish equity returns. Makda said silver offers a “double edge” due to its role in solar energy, IT, and medical technology, with persistent supply deficits over the past five years likely to continue through 2026.
Pranav Mer, Vice President for Commodity and Currency Research at JM Financial Services, struck a more cautious note on silver. He said silver is difficult to predict at current levels and is not advising fresh additions. For investors already holding the metal, Mer recommended trailing profit stops below Rs 3,00,000 per kg. He acknowledged that momentum could still push prices toward Rs 4,20,000 to Rs 4,50,000, or $140 to $150 in dollar terms, but stressed that risks have risen.
Gold, according to Mer, continues to move higher steadily, with every dip presenting a buying opportunity. He said gold can still be added at corrective levels and suggested that investors looking to hold both metals should consider an 80% allocation to gold and 20% to silver.
As the precious metals rally enters a more mature phase, the consensus among experts is clear. Silver may still glitter, but gold is increasingly seen as the steadier anchor for portfolios navigating an uncertain global landscape.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)