The white metal’s ascent to $93 per ounce, “a level once considered unthinkable,” according to Aamir Makda, Commodity & Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, has left silver ETFs up 30% year-to-date, building on last year’s explosive momentum. Gold futures climbed 1.75% to Rs 1,45,000 per 10 grams, marking fresh all-time highs for both metals.
“Gold and silver are no longer just commodities, they are geopolitics in metal form,” said Amit Jain, Co-Founder of Ashika Global Family Office Services. “When major powers fight over resources like Greenland, markets instinctively price in risk, and precious metals become the default refuge. This rally reflects not speculation, but a deeper loss of confidence in global stability.”
Trump’s latest salvo, a 10% tariff hike on European countries that could balloon to 25% by June, has turbocharged an already red-hot market driven by what Makda calls a “perfect storm” of industrial scarcity and geopolitical chaos.
Over the past year, silver has skyrocketed more than 170%, while gold has gained over 70%. But the rally may be running on fumes.
Makda warned that technical charts are flashing warning signs even as prices hit new peaks. “We have observed a RSI bearish divergence on the daily charts, which is a classic ‘Red flag’ warning. It suggests that while the price is still climbing and hitting new peaks, the internal momentum driving those gains is actually weakening,” he said, adding that falling open interest levels point to “long unwinding” in March contracts. “Traders who already have long positions should look for a profit-booking at current levels.”
The metal’s fundamental drivers remain powerful. Silver has evolved from a monetary metal into a crucial industrial commodity, propelled by surging demand from solar photovoltaic expansion, electric vehicles—which require significantly more silver than traditional cars—and AI data centres reliant on silver-based components. A global supply deficit projected at 230 million ounces in 2026, exacerbated by China’s strict export licensing and stagnant mining output, has sent inventories plunging.The gold-to-silver ratio has collapsed to its historical average of 50:1, signaling silver is dramatically outperforming its yellow-metal cousin. Anticipated interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in Iran and Venezuela have bolstered silver’s safe-haven credentials.
“The rally is mainly attributed to strong global geopolitical uncertainty, supply-side concerns, a weakening US dollar, and robust industrial as well as investment demand,” said Satish Dondapati, Fund Manager at Kotak Mutual Fund. “Silver, being an industrial metal as well, has an added advantage in the current macroeconomic scenario.”
But domestic investors face a potential curveball. HDFC Securities has cautioned that any reduction in import duties on precious metals in the upcoming Union Budget could act as a “short-term headwind” for domestic prices, even as the long-term outlook remains bullish.
For retail investors, access matters. “Gold and silver can play a meaningful role in portfolio diversification, but the way investors access these assets matters,” said Vishal Kapoor, CEO of Bandhan AMC. “Physical metal often brings uncertainties around purity, making charges, storage, and resale, while ETFs require demat accounts that many investors still do not use.”
Technically, Makda sees immediate support at the 20-day exponential moving average of Rs 2,55,100, with a daily stop-and-reverse at Rs 2,49,500. On the upside, the 261% Fibonacci extension target sits at Rs 3,62,937, a tantalizing 20% higher, though the bearish divergence suggests caution.