The base case: Disruption lasts 6 months at most
Seksaria’s central assumption is that the current crude-related disruption stemming from the US-Iran conflict will last no longer than the first half of this year, with normalisation beginning in the second half. Under this scenario, markets are likely to look past near-term earnings weakness and start rallying well before the earnings recovery actually shows up in quarterly numbers — a classic case of markets pricing in the future rather than the present.
Crucially, he notes that valuations have already corrected to levels that look attractive for investors with the appetite to absorb short-term volatility. The dip, in his reading, has done much of the work for you.
If the war prolongs: The real risks
Should the conflict stretch to three or four months, the calculus changes meaningfully. Seksaria flags two specific risks for the financial sector — the possibility that the RBI is forced to raise interest rates in response to inflationary pressures, and deterioration in asset quality, particularly from the SME segment. These are not risks he dismisses, but ones he believes are unlikely to materialise unless the situation remains unresolved well into the second half of the year.
His biggest overweight: Lending financials
Seksaria’s highest-conviction call right now is the lending financial space — banks and NBFCs together. Early quarterly numbers from across the banking sector show healthy growth, and he believes net interest margins have broadly bottomed out for most lenders. Valuations are reasonable, the operating environment remains supportive, and both large private banks and larger urban-focused NBFCs look well-positioned to lead the market recovery.
He is, however, more selective within the NBFC space. Rural-focused NBFCs carry some weather-related risk given a below-average monsoon forecast for the year, so his current positioning leans toward urban consumption-focused lenders that are less exposed to agricultural income cycles.
The broader services basket: Retailers, telecom, hospitals
Beyond financials, Seksaria’s portfolio is tilted toward what he broadly calls the services economy — a category that includes jewellery retailers within consumer discretionary, telecom companies, and hospitals within the healthcare space. These businesses are largely insulated from the crude and petrochemicals narrative that is squeezing margins elsewhere. They have still corrected alongside the broader market, which in his view creates an attractive entry point for businesses whose fundamentals have not actually deteriorated.
IT services: Structural caution, selective opportunity
On traditional IT services, Seksaria maintains a slight underweight, and his reasons go beyond the current macro turbulence. The deeper challenge, he argues, is AI disruption. Work that previously took six months can now be completed in one month using AI tools, and this compression is beginning to show up in deal structures and client spending decisions. He expects revenue depletion, headcount reductions, and contract renegotiations to become more visible in the latter half of this year.
That said, he is not writing off the entire sector. Niche players in advertisement technology — where AI is a tailwind rather than a headwind — are areas where he holds an overweight position. The key, in his view, is separating AI beneficiaries from AI disruption victims within the broader technology universe.
Metals and Make-in-India: Time to step back
Two themes where Seksaria is trimming exposure are metals and the Make-in-India or EMS space. On metals, he is booking profits after a strong cyclical run. On EMS and PLI-linked manufacturing plays, he believes the market has moved from narrative to execution — and execution, across several companies, is falling short of targets.
For investors trying to navigate this market, Seksaria’s message is clear: stay close to domestic services, lean into financials, and be selective rather than broad in your recovery bets.