Reliance Power, Reliance Infra shares down 36% in 3 months. Can Anil Ambani convince markets his turnaround still has legs? – News Air Insight

Shares of Reliance Power and Reliance Infrastructure have tumbled nearly 36% each over the past three months, erasing much of the euphoria that surrounded Anil Ambani’s corporate comeback earlier this year. The collapse leaves investors questioning whether the fragile recovery in profits and debt reduction at his two surviving companies can withstand intensifying legal scrutiny and renewed pressure from lenders.

On Wednesday, Reliance Power fell as much as 4.3% to Rs 44.65, while Reliance Infra dropped 3.9% to Rs 255.15. For 2025 so far, Reliance Power is up just 4%, and Reliance Infra is down 18%.

Over the past year, Reliance Power remains higher by 55% and Reliance Infra by 21%, a sharp comedown from May levels, when the two had staged a stunning rally that saw Reliance Power soar 173% and Reliance Infra climb 141% over 12 months, sparking talk of a long-shot revival for Ambani’s debt-laden group. That optimism has since evaporated.

Legal shadows deepen

The Enforcement Directorate has filed a fresh case under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act against Ambani, Reliance Communications and others for allegedly defrauding the State Bank of India of more than Rs 2,900 crore. The case stems from a Central Bureau of Investigation complaint filed in August, which led to raids at Ambani’s home and Reliance Communications offices.

Ambani has “strongly denied all allegations and charges,” insisting he has been “selectively singled out” over matters dating back more than a decade, when he was a non-executive director at Reliance Communications.

Adding to the cloud, Bank of Baroda this month classified Reliance Communications’ loan accounts as “fraud,” following similar actions by SBI and Bank of India.

Earnings bring little relief

Both companies reported profits in the June quarter. Reliance Power posted a net profit of Rs 44.68 crore, reversing a Rs 97.85 crore loss a year earlier, though revenue fell 5.3% to Rs 1,885.58 crore. Reliance Infra reported a Rs 59.84 crore profit against a Rs 233.74 crore loss last year, but its revenue dropped nearly 18% to Rs 5,907.82 crore.“Reliance Infrastructure has corrected sharply but showed signs of repair in Q1 FY26,” said Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS, citing improved cost discipline and progress in arbitration claims. “While unrelated to R-Infra’s operations, this headline risk can weigh on multiples.”

Technical view: fragile supports

Dasani said Reliance Infra is trading in the Rs 265–Rs 275 band, with Rs 260–Rs 255 as crucial support. “If it sustains above Rs 260, a relief rally toward Rs 285–Rs 305 is likely,” he said. “A close below Rs 255, however, would negate the setup and invite further downside.”

Virat Jagad, Technical Research Analyst at Bonanza, noted that momentum indicators are showing “early recovery,” but warned the stock remains below key moving averages. He pegged resistance at Rs 282, with a stronger reversal possible only above Rs 310.

For Reliance Power, Dasani said the Rs 45–Rs 44 band remains the floor. “If Rs 45 holds, the next upside levels are Rs 49.5–Rs 50, with potential extension to Rs 53–Rs 54,” he said. Jagad pointed to Rs 50.50 as the key hurdle. “A sustained move above this level would signal strength and has the potential to open the stock for a further rally toward Rs 55,” he said.

Outlook

Dasani said Reliance Infra’s next two quarters will depend on execution in EPC projects, arbitration cash flows and cost control, while Reliance Power’s fortunes hinge on stable output at its Sasan and Rosa plants and receivable collections from discoms.

Also read | ED files fresh PMLA case against Anil Ambani, Reliance Communication

But both analysts cautioned that the companies’ progress could be overshadowed by fresh investigations tied to Ambani. For investors, the bigger question is whether operational gains can outpace the weight of legal headlines, or whether the latest fall marks the undoing of Ambani’s much-touted comeback.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)