Analysts further expect RIL’s consolidated EBITDA to grow 10–13% YoY, driven by stronger refining margins, higher digital revenue, and resilient retail operations. However, moderation in upstream and petrochemical margins could partly offset these gains.
O2C (Oil-to-Chemicals): Refining strength offsets weak petchem
RIL’s O2C segment — still the biggest contributor to group earnings — is expected to post steady sequential growth, aided by firm global refining margins and higher throughput after last quarter’s maintenance shutdown.Brokerages estimate O2C EBITDA to rise about 3–4% QoQ and 20–21% YoY, to around Rs 1.5 lakh crore. JM Financial pegs RIL’s refining throughput at 17.3 million metric tonnes, up 6% sequentially, with benchmark Singapore GRMs improving to $9.5–10 per barrel.
Jefferies and Nuvama note that diesel and jet fuel spreads in Europe and the US provided strong support this quarter, while petrochemical spreads stayed muted. A weaker rupee may also lift refining realizations.
Citi said, “O2C will benefit from higher diesel cracks and throughput, though muted petchem spreads could partly offset gains.”
Retail: Impact of GST cut, but early festive buying helps
Reliance Retail’s growth is likely to remain positive but slightly softer than recent quarters due to the September GST rate cuts on large-ticket consumer goods, which led some customers to defer purchases.
Analysts expect retail EBITDA to rise 11–15% YoY, in the range of Rs 64,000–66,000 crore, supported by a larger store base, higher footfalls, and better margins. Kotak estimates a 6% sequential rise, while Nomura and JP Morgan foresee margin expansion to about 7.5–7.6% on better cost efficiency and a pick-up in discretionary demand.
HSBC expects retail and digital sales to grow 14–16% YoY, while Citi said the early onset of the festive season may provide a mild sequential boost.
Jio: Subscriber momentum, ARPU uptick keep growth steady
Reliance Jio is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, led by rising subscribers and a modest increase in average revenue per user (ARPU). Most brokerages forecast Jio’s EBITDA growth of 2–3% QoQ and 14–17% YoY, reaching about Rs 17,000–18,000 crore. ARPU is expected to average around Rs 211–212, up about 1% sequentially and 8% YoY, supported by upgrades and one extra billing day in the quarter.
Subscriber additions are estimated at 5–7 million, taking the total user base to over 504 million, according to Nomura and Emkay Global.
Kotak said, “Jio’s EBITDA should rise 3% QoQ and 14% YoY, aided by sustained growth in both mobile and fixed broadband segments.”
Upstream: Slight dip in gas output
The upstream oil and gas business, primarily the KG-D6 field, may see muted performance due to natural decline in production. Emkay expects EBITDA to stay steady around Rs 4,900 crore, while Nomura estimates a small drop of 2–3% QoQ. Higher gas prices and favorable currency moves could cushion the fall.
Outlook
JP Morgan said that while results may not be a near-term trigger, investor focus will likely shift to management commentary on three fronts — the timeline for telecom tariff hikes, festive-season retail outlook, and progress in new energy and data center initiatives.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)