Indian market outlook: Volatility digested, growth revival ahead
Reflecting on the year gone by, Gupta noted that the last Samvat was marked by volatility and global uncertainty, driven by Trump’s tariff policies and geopolitical tensions. However, she believes the worst of these headwinds may now be behind us.
“Some of the headwinds around trade and geopolitics have been digested. The slowdown in India’s economy has been addressed through measures like tax cuts and the GST impact, which should start to reflect in the festive quarters,” Gupta said.
She added that if Q3 and Q4 earnings show a meaningful pickup, that could set the tone for a stronger Samvat 2082, paving the way for a new phase of equity outperformance.
Gold & silver: Momentum play, but temper expectations
Gupta acknowledged the surge in investor interest towards gold and silver, calling it a “momentum phase” for commodities — but cautioned against unrealistic return expectations.
“Central bank buying and de-dollarization themes are supporting gold prices, while silver’s industrial use has given it an extra lift. But with commodities up 50–60% Samvat-to-Samvat, investor expectations must moderate,” she warned.She noted that while gold and silver remain valuable portfolio diversifiers, investors should tread carefully and avoid chasing returns at elevated levels.
SIP revolution: From Rs 4,000 crore to Rs 1 lakh crore by 2030
Gupta was particularly upbeat about the financialization of savings and the resilience of SIP flows, which hit a record ₹30,000 crore in September 2025.
“Even through volatility and flat market returns, investors have shown remarkable faith in SIPs. This is a structural trend, not a cyclical one,” she said.
Recalling her early years at Edelweiss, Gupta pointed out how the SIP book has expanded almost sevenfold since 2017 and projected a ₹1 lakh crore monthly SIP flow by the end of this decade.
“When I joined in 2017, the SIP book was ₹4,000 crore. We’re now at ₹30,000 crore — and I believe ₹1 lakh crore is absolutely possible before 2030,” she said confidently.
Consumption: The core driver of India’s growth story
According to Gupta, India’s next market upcycle will be led by consumption, which contributes nearly 55–60% to GDP. She believes the ongoing tax and GST cuts could reignite both urban and rural consumption.
“If there’s an upsurge, it will be consumption-led. From traditional staples to premium goods, and from travel to hospitality, demand trends are picking up. India just doesn’t have enough hotels or airline capacity to match its rising income levels,” she observed.
Edelweiss recently launched a Consumption Fund, betting on India’s growing middle-class spending power and aspirational consumption patterns.
Sectoral themes for next 5 years: Hospitals, hotels, and capital markets
Looking ahead, Gupta identified three long-term themes that Edelweiss MF is bullish on:
Hospitals & healthcare: Rising healthcare awareness post-COVID and the need for more hospital beds.
Hotels & tourism: Domestic travel boom and limited capacity offer strong multi-year growth potential.
Capital markets: Continued retail participation and mutual fund expansion creating structural tailwinds.
“Hospitals, hotels, and capital markets — these are three areas where we see durable compounding over the next four to five years,” she emphasized.
Earnings outlook: Q2 to be muted, Q3 could mark a turnaround
Gupta expects Q2 earnings to remain moderate as festive spending was deferred, but anticipates a strong revival in Q3, led by autos, white goods, and discretionary sectors.
“Q2 will likely be mixed, but we expect double-digit growth for the full year if Q3 trends hold up,” she said.
Despite global headwinds, Radhika Gupta remains confident that India’s growth story is intact, supported by rising domestic demand, resilient SIP inflows, and improving macro fundamentals.
“If there’s one theme that will drive the next market upcycle, it’s India’s consumption engine,” she concluded.
as a Reliable and Trusted News Source