The first installment of the Dhurandhar franchise arrived in theatres in December last year, creating new records as moviegoers rushed to watch the spy thriller after a long lull. The movie’s overall gross earnings in India stood at around Rs 1,008 crore, according to Sacnilk. Despite the optimism, PVR Inox shares declined over 7% in December 2025.
The second installment of the Dhurandhar franchise, titled ‘Dhurandhar: The Revenge’, released in theaters on March 19. The film has now emerged as the first Bollywood film ever to surpass a net collection of Rs 1,000 crore across all versions, creating history. Overall, it has become the third Indian film after ‘Pushpa 2’ and ‘Baahubali 2’ to achieve the milestone. The gross collections of ‘Dhurandhar: The Revenge’ in India meanwhile stands at around Rs 1,179 crore, according to Sacnilk. This takes the total gross collection of the two movies so far to more than Rs 2,000 crore.
But the shares of PVR Inox again missed the rally following the release of the sequel. The stock has declined nearly 8% since the release of the second installment in theaters. Overall, the shares of the company have tumbled 14% so far since the Dhurandhar franchise first arrived in theaters.
Classic disconnect between operational momentum & market expectations
Despite strong box office traction from the Dhurandhar franchise, the nearly 13% decline in PVR Inox share price over the past six months reflects a classic disconnect between operational momentum and market expectations, said Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS. The key issue is that while footfalls have improved for select big-ticket releases, overall content consistency remains weak, he highlighted.
“The Indian exhibition industry continues to face uneven movie pipelines, with long gaps between blockbuster releases hurting occupancy rates and revenue visibility. Moreover, rising costs—especially rentals, employee expenses, and food inflation—have put pressure on margins, limiting the earnings upside from high footfall films,” he added.
From an investor standpoint, valuations already priced in a strong recovery post the merger of PVR and Inox, according to Dasani, who added that the actual earnings delivery has lagged expectations. “Concerns around OTT competition, changing consumer behaviour, and dependence on a few large films have also capped rerating potential. Going ahead, the outlook hinges on a more consistent content slate in FY27, particularly from Bollywood and regional cinema. If content flow stabilises and operating leverage kicks in, margins can improve meaningfully. Until then, the stock is likely to remain range-bound, with sharp rallies only around major box office successes rather than a sustained uptrend,” he said.
Potential to salvage Q4 earnings?
Robust box office collections from Dhurandar can lead to relatively better earnings growth in the March 2026 quarter and can have a positive rub off effect on the stock in the short term, said Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities. “Having said that, consistency in strong box office collections every year is the key for PVR’s earnings growth and re-rating. One notable positive development for PVR has been significant deleveraging of the balance sheet during the last 3-4 years with gross debt reduction to the tune of Rs 500 crore,” he further said, while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ stance on the stock.
Prabhudas Lilladher (PL Capital) in a report released last month had said that Dhurandhar: The Revenge has the potential to salvage the fourth quarter for PVR-INOX, which otherwise appeared to be a bit lukewarm as, barring Border 2, none of the Bollywood movies like O’Romeo, Mardani 3 or The Kerala Story 2, were able to strike a chord with the audience.
If Dhurandhar: The Revenge collects around Rs 1,000 crore and 75% of the collections accrue in the first 14-15 days, industry-wide box office collections for the quarter will be similar to Q4 FY25, the firm said. “Thus, Hamza’s revenge is likely to benefit PVR-INOX in Q4 FY26E,” it added, while keeping a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,274 apiece, implying an upside potential of nearly 36% from the stock’s previous closing price.
Elara Capital recently kept a bullish stance on PVR Inox, with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,300 apiece, implying an upside potential of more than 38% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 939.05 apiece on NSE. Operationally, Elara Capital estimates Q4 occupancy at around 28%, with FY26 occupancy likely to settle at approximately 26.5%. Higher average ticket prices (ATP), driven by premium formats, are expected to support revenue growth.
Additionally, the company’s balance sheet is set to improve, with net debt projected to decline from Rs 3.6 billion to Rs 1.4 billion. Return on invested capital (ROIC) is also expected to strengthen, improving to around 10% to 12% going forward.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)