The new regulations target high-energy lithium-ion batteries with energy densities of 300 Wh/kg or higher, key cathode and anode materials including lithium iron phosphate and artificial graphite, and critical manufacturing machinery such as winding and lamination machines. The policy is designed to safeguard national security, protect intellectual property, and maintain China’s dominance in lithium-ion battery production. China currently controls approximately 65% of global lithium chemical processing and 77% of battery production, giving it outsized influence over global EV supply chains.
Analysts warn that these export curbs could create short-term supply disruptions and price pressures for Indian EV makers, even as local demand grows.
Ather Energy
Ather Energy shares have gained 16% in the past month and 85% over the past three months, touching Rs 634.5 recently. The company sources a substantial portion of its lithium-ion cells from China but is actively reducing dependence through localisation.
Yash Chauhan, Research Analyst at INVasset PMS, noted that Ather Energy “sources a substantial portion of its lithium-ion cells from Chinese suppliers, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. Ather has partnered with Amara Raja Energy & Mobility to localise battery supplies, aiming to reduce import reliance and manage supply fluctuations. However, the recent export controls could still pose short-term challenges, including potential delays in the ramp-up of these localisation efforts.”
From a technical perspective, Laxmikant Shukla, Technical Analyst at YES Securities, said the Ather Energy stock “remains strong on the charts, consistently trading above its 20-day SMA near 580–585 zone, reflecting solid buying support on declines. We recommend accumulating in the Rs 585–590 zone with a stop-loss at Rs 560, targeting Rs 650 in the short term.”
Amruta Shinde, Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said the stock is currently trading at Rs 615, showing strong bullish momentum. A breakout above the recent swing high around Rs 680 could propel the stock toward Rs 700–Rs 750.
Ola Electric
By contrast, Ola Electric Mobility shares have lost 13% over the past month to Rs 52.58 and are down 41% over the past year. While the company has made strides in localisation, with its Tamil Nadu Gigafactory producing 4680 lithium-ion cells and its rare earth-free ferrite motor certified by the government, analysts caution that reliance on Chinese inputs continues to pose risks.
“Ola Electric’s reliance on Chinese battery components, despite efforts to reduce imports, exposes it to potential cost escalations and supply uncertainties. While the recent export controls present short-term challenges, these companies’ proactive measures position them to mitigate risks and maintain production capabilities,” said Chauhan of INVasset PMS.
However, Ola Electric’s development of the 4680 Bharat cell battery and rare earth metal-free motor at its Gigafactory, Chauhan said, “demonstrates a strong commitment to innovation and self-reliance.”
On the charts, analysts see limited upside. Shukla of YES Securities said the stock’s “bearish trend remains dominant. Traders should avoid long positions until a decisive and sustained trend reversal is confirmed.”
“Ola is currently trading at Rs 50.24, reflecting a strong sideways to bearish momentum. A decisive breakdown below Rs 48.60 could trigger further selling pressure, potentially dragging the price down to Rs 46.65, with an extended downside target near Rs 44.35,” said Shinde at Choice Broking.
Meanwhile, Drumil Vithlani, Technical Analyst at Bonanza, recommended caution and said “any bounce toward Rs 52–Rs 55 may face strong resistance and should be viewed as an exit opportunity for short-term holders. Watch Rs 48 as critical support, if this level breaks, price could slip to Rs 45 or lower.”
Diverging trajectories for investors
While both companies face the same external pressure from China’s export curbs, analysts point to diverging trajectories. Ather Energy’s localisation partnerships, rising sales volumes, and strong technical setup suggest it is better positioned to withstand short-term disruptions. Ola Electric, however, faces near-term vulnerabilities due to its heavier dependence on Chinese inputs and a weaker technical picture.
As analysts point out, the next few months will test whether India’s EV champions can maintain momentum amid tightening global supply chains — or whether China’s new battery rules will drain some of their charge.
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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)