NSE’s long-term trajectory intact, F&O tightening key risk: Motilal Oswal – News Air Insight

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Domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal expects the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) to post steady growth in the coming quarters, driven by a recovery in trading volumes and momentum in non-transaction revenue streams. The brokerage forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 6% in revenue, 4% in operating profit (EBITDA), and 7% in reported profit after tax (PAT) between FY25 and FY28, even as near-term profitability remains under pressure from a one-off settlement fee.

The exchange, which continues to dominate across market segments, is focusing on product innovation and market diversification. Newer offerings such as electricity and commodity derivatives are gaining traction, while fundraising activity has been robust. NSE also remains the benchmark for index-linked products, with 52 passive funds launched in India during the period tracking the Nifty indices.

However, Motilal Oswal flagged potential risks from tighter regulations in the F&O segment, even as the long-term growth trajectory remains intact.

In the September quarter (Q2FY26), NSE’s operating revenue dropped 18% year-on-year to Rs 3,680 crore due to a 22% fall in transaction charges, reflecting weaker trading volumes across segments. Total expenditure jumped 38% to Rs 2,190 crore, primarily because of a Rs 1,300 crore provision for a SEBI settlement fee related to the colocation and dark-fibre cases.

As a result, EBITDA fell 49% year-on-year to Rs 1,480 crore, with margins contracting to 40.4% from 64.7% a year earlier. Excluding the settlement impact, EBITDA stood at Rs 2,780 crore with a 76% margin.


Including a Rs 1,200 crore gain from the sale of a 9% stake in NSDL, reported PAT came in at Rs 2,100 crore, down 33% year-on-year and 28% sequentially. Adjusted for the one-time settlement cost, PAT was Rs 3,400 crore.Transaction revenue, which made up 67% of total income, was hit by a 12% decline in cash ADTO or average daily turnover, a 16% drop in equity futures, and a 16% fall in options premium. Equity options remained the mainstay, accounting for 76% of transaction revenue, followed by the cash segment (13%) and futures (11%).Among other income streams, data centre charges grew 6%, data feed and terminal services rose 11%, and listing services increased 10%. Operating investment income declined 16% year-on-year.

NSE’s market share remained dominant at 92.3% in the cash market, 99.8% in equity futures, and 75.6% in equity options premium. The exchange’s investor base surpassed 12 crore unique investors with over 24 crore total accounts.

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As far as management commentary is concerned, NSE clarified that there are no immediate plans to increase transaction charges, though SEBI approval is not required should the exchange decide to revise tariffs in the future. NSE said it has filed a settlement application with SEBI pertaining to the colocation and dark-fibre orders, and awaits a response.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)



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