Notwithstanding a mixed action for India’s heartbeat index, the trends for foreign and domestic flows have largely been positive. While the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers in 60% of the instances, putting money on the table during the same period, domestic institutional investors (DII) fared even better, pumping money on seven occasions in the past 10 Novembers.
The 50-stock index settled higher in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2023 while in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2021 and 2024, it closed with cuts of 1.62%, 4.65%, 1.05%, 3.90 and 0.31%, respectively.
The sharpest uptick of 11.4% was seen in 2020 and is followed by a 5.52% rise seen in 2023. Nifty gained 4.72% and 4.14% in 2018 and 2022. In 2019, the benchmark index grew 1.5% month-on-month in November.
FII/DII data
Foreign and domestic institutional investors have displayed contrasting behaviour on many instances over the past decade when it comes to November market flows. Data from the past 10 years shows FIIs have been net buyers in six out of ten Novembers, with inflows peaking at Rs 60,358 crore in 2020 — a period marked by global liquidity gush post-Covid. In contrast, they pulled out Rs 21,612 crore in 2024, the sharpest outflow since 2016, reflecting global risk aversion and a stronger dollar environment.DIIs, on the other hand, have emerged as consistent market stabilisers, recording net inflows in seven of the past ten Novembers. Their strongest buying came in 2024, with investments of ₹44,484 crore, even as FIIs headed for the exit. The only notable period of DII withdrawals was between 2019 and 2020, coinciding with the FII buying surge.The diverging trend underscores the increasing financialisation of domestic savings and the growing clout of mutual funds, insurance firms, and pension funds in India’s equity markets. With retail SIP inflows hitting record highs, domestic institutions have become a key counterbalance to global fund movements, ensuring stability amid shifting foreign sentiment.
Nifty November 2025 outlook
Nifty lived up to the positive October seasonality, rising over 1,260 points or 5% as on October 30, 2025. It will end on a positive note this month.
Lauding the market resilience of the October series, Sudeep Shah – Deputy Vice President & Head of Technical and Derivative Research Desk at SBI Securities expects more fireworks in the November series, based on the rollover data.
This strong performance underscores the prevailing bullish sentiment in the market with the index trading near record levels, Shah said, highlighting that all major moving averages, including short-term and long-term trends are aligned positively, reinforcing the strength of the ongoing uptrend. Momentum-based indicators also echo this optimism, signaling sustained buying interest, he added.
However, an Axis Direct note suggests a cautious near-term sentiment, a subdued rollover trend and possibly a cautious undertone among traders regarding carry forwarding positions. “The Nifty October rollover stood at 75.8%, down from 82.6% last expiry and below the 3-month (80.6%) and 6-month (79.9%) averages, indicating cautious near term sentiment,” the brokerage said.
It estimates the likely range for the current expiry between 25,500 and 26,500, with 26,000 acting as a pivotal level.
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(Data Inputs from Ritesh Presswala)
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)