The prediction follows the cut-off date for average market capitalization, which ended on July 31, 2025.
According to Nuvama, the inclusion of Indigo and Max Healthcare is anticipated to drive strong passive inflows of approximately $507 million and $423 million, respectively. On the other hand, the exclusion of Hero MotoCorp and IndusInd Bank is expected to result in passive outflows of about $251 million and $240 million, respectively.
The rejig, based on finalized market-cap data and standard methodology thresholds, is likely to impact fund rebalancing across domestic and global passive investment vehicles.
The official announcement regarding the index changes is expected in the second half of August 2025.
In its projections, Nuvama highlighted that Indigo will contribute 7.5 million shares with an average daily volume (ADV) of 9.0, while Max Healthcare will contribute 29.8 million shares with an ADV of 16.3.Meanwhile, Hero MotoCorp and IndusInd Bank are estimated to have 5.2 million and 26.3 million shares impacted, respectively.
Nifty Next 50 changes also expected
While the focus remains on the Nifty 50 reshuffle, changes are also anticipated in the Nifty Next 50 index.
According to Nuvama, Solar Industries, Environ, Mankind Pharma, Hindustan Zinc, and Union Bank of India are expected to be added to the index.
Expected inflows for these additions include $59 million for Solar Industries, $49 million for Environ, $44 million for Mankind Pharma, $27 million for Hindustan Zinc, and $42 million for Union Bank of India.
The corresponding exclusions from the Nifty Next 50 are likely to be Indigo (due to its expected move to the Nifty 50), Dabur, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, and Swiggy. These stocks may witness outflows of $183 million, $50 million, $39 million, and $25 million, respectively.
Nuvama also addressed the eligibility of BSE, stating that the exchange has zero probability of inclusion in the Nifty 50 for the September 2025 review under the current methodology and thresholds.
Timeline overview:
- Cut-off date for average market cap: July 31, 2025 (passed)
- Expected announcement: Second half of August 2025
- Effective date of changes: September 30, 2025
However, Nuvama has flagged potential risks to its predictions, including possible changes to NSE Indices’ methodology and major revisions to the free-float factor.
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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)