According to Shenoy, the Nifty could see a sharp rally, potentially surging 20% to touch the 30,000 mark before next Diwali. “There will be a layer of insane momentum on the upside and make people question everything they know about valuations,” the market veteran said.
On the commodity front, Shenoy warns of a significant correction in precious metals, predicting that gold could fall more than 20% from its recent peak, with silver likely to follow a similar path with ‘no meaningful basis’, he says. “If you’re long on gold, I hope I’m wrong,” Shenoy notes, acknowledging the speculative nature of the forecast.
Globally, Shenoy foresees a US recession combined with stubborn inflation, which may limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates aggressively. He adds that the economic slowdown could force Washington to ease some of the trade tariffs it imposed during the recent US-China trade tensions, though the broader fallout from these trade disputes will continue to shape global markets.
For India, Shenoy expects domestic capital to play a growing role in driving growth. He predicts increased investments into mutual funds and equities from Indian investors, with foreign flows becoming less influential in the country’s broader growth story. This, he says, could help India achieve a real GDP growth of around 7% next year, with nominal growth exceeding 10%.
On the currency front, Shenoy anticipates the rupee could weaken to 90 at some point, but expects it to recover to a more comfortable 80–85 range by Diwali 2026.Shenoy’s predictions paint a picture of a dynamic year ahead — one of high volatility, sharp market moves, and a rebalancing of domestic and global economic forces.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)