Markets hold ground despite Iran-US tensions
After a sharp rally triggered by ceasefire hopes, markets faced renewed pressure after Iran alleged the US had violated the truce agreement. Yet the selloff remained contained, and indices recovered meaningfully from their intraday lows — a sign that underlying sentiment has not deteriorated significantly.
Rahul Sharma, Director and Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at JM Financial Services, told ET Now that the broader market structure remains constructive. “The undertone of the market is still okay,” he said, pointing to a notable cooling in the India VIX volatility index as evidence that fear is receding rather than building.
Nifty resistance at 24,000; next target 24,500
On the charts, Nifty ran into stiff resistance at the 24,000 level in the previous session, triggering a mild pullback. Sharma sees this as a temporary pause rather than a trend reversal. Once Nifty decisively clears the 24,000 hurdle, he expects a fresh round of short covering to push the index toward 24,500.
Crucially, Sharma identifies 22,800 on the Nifty spot as the key support level to watch. “The view is positive as long as we hold the 22,800 mark,” he said. A breach of that level would be the first signal that the recovery is losing steam.
Adding to the positive picture, the Midcap Nifty Index is already outperforming the benchmark — crossing the previous session’s highs and trading in positive territory — suggesting that risk appetite is returning to broader market participants.
Two stock picks: Vedanta and NTPC Green
Sharma flagged two positional trade setups for investors looking to ride the recovery.Vedanta stands out in the metals space, which continues to show bullish momentum. The stock is on the verge of a breakout above the ₹740 mark. Sharma recommends buying at current levels with a stop loss at ₹698, targeting ₹780 to ₹800 on the upside — a potential gain of roughly 8–10%.
NTPC Green is his second pick on the cash side, offering an estimated 10–12% upside in the near term. Sharma places the stop loss for this trade at ₹92, making it a well-defined risk-reward setup for positional investors.
IT sector: Worst already priced in?
With TCS set to report earnings later in the day, the IT sector is naturally under the spotlight. The sector had been a top performer during the rupee’s depreciation phase but has seen some correction recently as currency tailwinds faded.
Sharma’s read of the charts suggests the market has already absorbed much of the negative sentiment around IT earnings. “Most of the negative seems to be factored in,” he said, adding that any positive surprise in the TCS result could lift the entire IT basket.
His preferred trade within IT is Infosys. With the stock down around 1.5% on the day, Sharma sees an attractive entry point. He recommends buying around ₹1,325 with a tight stop loss at ₹1,295, targeting ₹1,380 to ₹1,400 on the upside — a clean, event-driven setup tied to the earnings catalyst.
For broader market participants, the key near-term trigger remains the 24,000 level on Nifty. A sustained close above that mark could set the stage for a more confident leg of the ongoing recovery.