Nifty 50 companies at the aggregate level are expected to report 7.2% and 12.6% year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, respectively, for the September quarter, according to the ETIG estimates.
A muted performance by the banking and finance companies is likely to limit the overall growth for the sample. According to Gautam Duggad, institutional research head, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, earnings growth for the companies covered by the broking firm would rise to 16% from 9% after excluding these companies.
Chetan Shenoy, research head, Anand Rathi Wealth, expects a steady results season with 6-7% earnings growth supported by domestic cyclical sectors such as capital goods, energy and select consumption-oriented sectors. “While global headwinds and export weakness may weigh on select sectors, aggregate earnings momentum for the Nifty 50 universe should remain resilient, aided by stable macros and easing input cost pressures,” Shenoy added.
The sample’s operating margin is expected to improve by 80 basis points year-on-year to 21.2%. According to Vinit Bolinjkar, research head, Ventura Securities, blended margins may either remain flat or slightly improve. “Tailwinds from lower energy and freight costs and support from weaker rupee are offset by pressure on banking profitability, higher credit costs and GST-related transition frictions in staples and retail segments.
Analysts are optimistic about future growth prospects. Opportunities: According to Bolinjkar, government capital expenditure and housing demand support sectors, including cement, building materials and construction, while automobiles are likely to gain in the near term from festive demand and lower GST rates.Shenoy believes that the recent policy tailwinds, including income-tax relaxation, GST rationalisation, and repo-rate cuts are set to stimulate consumption, credit demand, and corporate profitability though US tariff uncertainty remains a key challenge.According to Duggad, coordinated efforts by the government and RBI through tax incentives and accommodative monetary policy are expected to boost demand and drive growth in the coming periods. He expects Nifty 50 earnings to grow 9% for FY26 compared with the 5% growth in the previous year.
AgenciesAutomobiles
Demand for two-wheelers and commercial vehicles (CV) recovered in the second quarter of the current fiscal year. Two-wheeler volume grew in double digits year-on-year in the September quarter while the passenger vehicle growth was weaker in single digit. Among the index companies, Mahindra and Mahindra, Eicher Motors and Hero Motocorp are likely to report double digit net profit growth.
Banking, Finance
Credit growth slowed to 10.3% year-on-year as of September 19 from 13.1% a year ago whereas deposit growth fell to 9.5% from 11.6% during the period. In addition, the lending rates will fully reflect the impact of the recent interest rate cuts while its effect on deposit rates will be spread over the next few quarters thereby impacting net interest margin.
Capital Goods
The order books of companies kept ringing during the quarter helped by projects in sectors including power, railways and defence. With softer raw material prices, operating margins are expected to improve year-on-year. Larsen and Toubro is likely to report a double-digit growth in revenue and profit for the quarter.
CEMENT
Cement price remained stable while falling in the last week of September as companies passed on the GST rate reduction. Cement volume is expected to grow in single digits excluding capacity addition. UltraTech is likely to report strong revenue and profit growth on a lower base a year ago.
CONSUMER GOODS
Performance of companies is expected to be affected by the transition to the new lower GST rates given the constraint on changing package sizes and channel utilisation. However, festive demand may offer support to the volume growth. The sector companies in the Nifty index are expected to deliver a low-single digit net profit growth for the September quarter.
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Top-tier firms are likely to report either a decline or low single digit growth in the dollar denominated revenue growth. Operating margins may show pressure for companies which undertook salary increases during the quarter such as TCS while Infosys may benefit due to an absence of salary revision.
METALS
Due to lower product prices amid slack in demand, ferrous companies are likely to report lower net profit for the September quarter. On the other hand, non-ferrous companies may report double-digit growth driven by an uptick in prices.
PHARMACEUTICALS
A transition to the new GST regime is likely to affect domestic formulations business while the US generics business will show an impact of higher competitive pressure. Sun Pharma and Dr Reddy’s are expected to report low single-digit net profit growth while Apollo Hospitals is expected to report strong double-digit growth helped by sustained demand.
OIL AND GAS
Benign crude oil prices during the quarter compared with the previous year and higher retail fuel margins augur well for downstream oil marketing companies, which are expected to report strong performance. Upstream oil producers, on the other hand, may show pressure on profitability due to lower crude prices.
TELECOM
The sector will continue to benefit from subscriber additions and improved per user tariff rates. Bharti Airtel, the sole telco in the Nifty 50 is likely to post strong revenue and profit growth for the quarter.
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