Navi Mumbai airport: Lodha big beneficiary, stock can rally 46%, says Jefferies – News Air Insight

The Navi Mumbai International Airport, set to be inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday, could reshape the city’s property dynamics, and Jefferies says Lodha Developers stands to gain the most. The brokerage estimates the stock could rise as much as 46%, citing the developer’s extensive land holdings near the project and broader infrastructure upgrades across the Mumbai region.

Jefferies said Lodha’s large land bank positions it as a significant beneficiary of the new airport, part of a $80 billion infrastructure overhaul that also includes the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link (MTHL), new metro lines, and coastal road extensions. The brokerage said these projects are already boosting land valuations in the extended suburbs.

“The improved infra has partly reflected in a Palava land price rise already,” Jefferies said, referring to Lodha’s 4,500-acre land bank in Palava and Upper Thane. The Palava township, which spans 1,000 acres and houses around 30,000 families, has seen warehouse land prices jump from Rs 20–30 million per acre in 2019–22 to Rs 210 million in 2024–25. Residential sales imply township land values around Rs 350 million per acre.

Jefferies said continued infrastructure development would accelerate monetisation and premiumisation of Lodha’s assets as new projects are rolled out in central and western Mumbai and North Bangalore.

Sales momentum and valuation

Lodha recorded Rs 46 billion in pre-sales in the first half of FY26, up 8% year-on-year, representing 43% of its Rs 210 billion annual target. Jefferies said the company’s first-half performance was consistent with its guidance, though slightly below the 20% growth target for the year.

The brokerage argued that the stock’s 18% decline this year makes valuations compelling, noting that Lodha now trades at 2x enterprise value to sales (excluding Palava) and at a 15% discount to net asset value — levels Jefferies said are among the lowest since the company listed.

“Our price target of Rs 1,625 is based on a 15.0x price-to-earnings multiple on one-year forward normalized margins, reflecting a potential 46% upside,” the brokerage said. Jefferies also projected an upside scenario of Rs 1,800 per share if land monetisation accelerates faster than expected, but warned that delays in project launches or higher interest rates could drag the stock down to Rs 1,000 per share.

Jefferies concluded that Lodha remains a “marquee” beneficiary of Mumbai’s sweeping infrastructure upgrade, with the new airport catalyzing higher land values and stronger pre-sales momentum.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)