Muthoot Finance shares plunge 14% despite Q3 net profit soaring 95%. Here’s what Jefferies, CLSA are saying – News Air Insight

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Shares of Muthoot Finance tumbled as much as 14% to an intraday low of Rs 3,577 on the BSE on Friday despite the company reporting a sharp surge in third-quarter earnings. Standalone net profit nearly doubled to Rs 2,656 crore from Rs 1,363 crore a year earlier, supported by a 47% decline in provisions to Rs 111 crore.

Total income jumped 64% year-on-year to Rs 7,263 crore, while assets under management rose 51% to Rs 1.48 lakh crore, with gold loans accounting for Rs 1.40 lakh crore.

For 9 months, profit after tax surged 91% year-on-year to Rs 7,048 crore, compared with Rs 3,693 crore in the corresponding period last year. Loan AUM stood at Rs 1,47,552 crore in 9MFY26, marking a 51% YoY increase from Rs 97,487 crore.

During the period, total Loan AUM expanded by Rs 38,905 crore, reflecting a growth of 36%, while Gold Loan AUM rose by Rs 36,702 crore, also up 36%. In the December quarter alone, Gold Loan AUM increased by Rs 14,740 crore, registering a 12% sequential growth.

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Managing Director George Alexander Muthoot said the company has once again raised its FY26 annual growth guidance to 44–45% from the earlier revised estimate of 30–35%, citing strong demand and improved regulatory clarity in the gold loan segment, which have supported robust business traction.

Should you buy, sell or hold?

Jefferies has maintained a Buy rating with a target price of Rs 4,750, highlighting a strong Q3 performance. Standalone AUM grew 51% YoY but came in slightly below estimates due to lower loan-to-value ratios and a sequential dip in tonnage. Core NIMs moderated quarter-on-quarter, though operating expenses relative to AUM and credit costs were better than expected. The brokerage believes firm gold prices, a healthy LTV buffer and easing branch expansion norms should support robust AUM growth. Combined with steady margins, lower operating costs and controlled credit expenses, this could drive an estimated 17% EPS CAGR and over 25% ROE during FY26–28E.CLSA has retained an Outperform rating with a target price of Rs 4,600, noting another strong quarterly showing where Q3FY26 NII, PPOP and PAT exceeded its estimates by 6%–8%. Loan growth stood at 11% QoQ and 51% YoY, about 2 percentage points above expectations. The brokerage highlighted an expansion in calculated loan yields despite a higher base, supported by continued interest recoveries that also boosted earnings. CLSA reiterated that the company’s business model offers inherent operating leverage due to large fixed costs, with total operating expenses — excluding a Rs 480 million one-off labour code impact — remaining flat sequentially. The only negatives were a 2% sequential decline in tonnage and a slowdown in customer acquisition during the quarter.

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Nuvama has reiterated its Buy rating and raised the target price to Rs 4,700 from Rs 4,000, valuing the stock at 4.2x FY26E book value. The brokerage highlighted Muthoot’s strong earnings performance, which continues to outpace peers, along with its ability to defend loan yields despite intensifying competition. It expects robust demand for gold loans from low-income borrowers to remain a key growth driver.

Additionally, a supportive regulatory environment — including the relaxation of norms around new branch openings — is seen as a positive factor that could further aid business expansion and growth momentum.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)



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