Maruti Suzuki shares fall 3% after Q2 results, October sales volumes. Should you buy? – News Air Insight

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Shares of Maruti Suzuki India slid 3% to their day’s low of Rs 15,690 on the BSE in early trade on Monday, November 3, even after the automaker reported an 8% year-on-year (YoY) rise in profit after tax (PAT) for the July–September quarter of FY26 and an 8.4% YoY surge in its October sales volumes.

The company posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 3,349 crore in Q2FY26, compared to Rs 3,102.5 crore in the same quarter last year. However, the profit came in slightly below Street expectations of Rs 3,458 crore.

Revenue from operations grew 13% YoY to Rs 42,344.2 crore, beating analyst estimates of Rs 39,958 crore. The automaker saw improved demand and performance across its product segments, contributing to the robust revenue figures.

Adding to the momentum, Maruti Suzuki also reported a strong 8.2% YoY increase in production volumes for October 2025. The company produced a total of 1,92,139 vehicles last month, compared to 1,77,312 units in October 2024.

The growth was led by a 13% rise in the Mini + Compact sub-segment, where production rose to 97,321 units from 87,794 units a year ago. Utility Vehicles and Vans also posted higher production numbers, with Utility Vehicle production up at 78,450 units compared to 72,339 units in the previous year, and Van production rising to 12,853 units from 12,149 units.

Here is what brokerage firms are saying:

Goldman Sachs: Buy| Target price: Rs 19,000

Goldman Sachs has maintained its “Buy” rating on Maruti Suzuki, with a target price of Rs 19,000 against the previous target of Rs 18,900.The global brokerage noted that Maruti Suzuki’s Q2 results were in line with expectations, with revenue and EBITDA rising 5% and 4% respectively, in line with Bloomberg consensus estimates.

The launch of the new Vitara-based SUV, Victors, which saw around 4,000 units sold in the last eight days of September, is anticipated to cause a ~5% volume decline in the upcoming quarters due to base effect and initial inventory adjustments. Despite this, Maruti remains optimistic about demand, expecting sub-4-meter cars and compact SUVs to outperform larger cars in terms of volume over the next 12 months, especially on the back of a low average base.

Maruti Suzuki had earlier projected a 20% export volume growth guidance for FY26E. However, after achieving 40% growth in the first half (1HFY26), the company now expects to exceed its original guidance. Goldman Sachs also noted that the company’s 6% domestic volume growth guidance for the second half of FY26 (2HFY26) appears conservative. It expects Maruti Suzuki to achieve approximately 11% domestic volume growth in the second half.

Additionally, the company achieved 20% retail volume growth in October and an impressive 90% YoY retail growth during the 38-day festive period since the September 22 GST cuts. Goldman Sachs highlighted that the current channel inventory has normalised to the 1.5-month level.

Looking forward, Maruti Suzuki has indicated that eight new SUV launches between FY26 and FY31 will support its mid-term targets. These include achieving a 50% volume market share—up from 40.7% in October 2025—and delivering 10% EBIT margins, higher than the 8.9% achieved in FY26 guidance.

Elara: Accumulate| Target price: Rs 18,341

Elara Capital has maintained its “Accumulate” rating on Maruti Suzuki, raising the target price to Rs 18,341 from Rs 17,643.

The upward revision follows strong Q2FY26 performance, where the company reported a 13% year-on-year (YoY) increase in revenue—exceeding estimates by 3%. This growth was driven by higher average selling prices (ASPs) and robust electric vehicle (EV) export performance.

The company’s EBIT margin stood at 8.1%, showing an improvement of 10 basis points quarter-on-quarter. However, margins were impacted by increased spending on promotions, advertising, and foreign exchange losses, which offset the benefits from operating leverage.

Maruti Suzuki saw a strong festive season, with sales jumping 89% YoY. Small car volumes surged 30%, supported by the GST cuts during the festive period. The company’s market share expanded by 90 basis points YoY, the highest gain among peers during the period.

Looking ahead, Maruti Suzuki is targeting a 50% market share and a 10% EBIT margin by FY31, underpinned by the launch of several new SUV models. The company’s exports are also performing well, up 32% year-to-date (YTD), with over 7,000 e-Vitara units shipped to Europe.

Elara expects Maruti’s EBITDA to grow 27% in the second half of FY26 (H2FY26), supported by a 10% volume growth. On this basis, Elara has valued the stock at 28 times its projected December 2027 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.

Citi: Target price: Rs 18,900

Citi has expressed a positive outlook on Maruti Suzuki, citing strong festive season sales and the expectation of sustained growth momentum as key drivers of its optimism. The brokerage believes the robust demand environment will continue to support the company’s performance in the coming quarters.

On the export front, Citi highlighted that Maruti Suzuki’s FY26 export volumes could exceed the earlier guidance of 400,000 units. The encouraging export performance adds to the company’s growth levers.

Also read: ‘Dumb money is chasing dumb IPOs’: Shankar Sharma on India’s public markets amid Lenskart buzz

Reflecting a better pricing environment, Citi has increased Maruti Suzuki’s EV/EBIT multiple from 26x to 28x. This revision has resulted in an upward adjustment of the target price to Rs 18,900.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)



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