10-year snapshot
March has historically tilted in favour of bulls. Excluding the pandemic-driven crash of 2020 (-23.2%) and the decline in 2018 (-3.6%), the index has largely ended the month in the green.
Gains were particularly strong in 2016 (10.7%), 2019 (7.7%), and 2025 (6.3%), while 2022 also saw a solid 4% rise. Even in relatively muted years such as 2021 (1.1%), 2024 (1.6%) and 2023 (0.3%), the index managed to close higher.
FII trends
FII trends in March over the past 10 years have largely been positive, with net inflows recorded in seven instances. However, in two out of the three years that saw outflows, foreign investors resorted to heavy selling of Indian equities, highlighting the occasional bouts of sharp risk-off sentiment.
FIIs were aggressive buyers between 2016 and 2019, investing Rs 21,143 crore in 2016, Rs 30,906 crore in 2017, Rs 11,654 crore in 2018 and Rs 33,981 crore in 2019.
The sentiment turned sharply in 2020 when they pulled out Rs 61,973 crore amid the pandemic-led market turmoil. Another major bout of selling was seen in 2022 with outflows of Rs 41,123 crore.
FIIs returned as net buyers in 2021 (Rs 10,482 crore), 2023 (Rs 7,936 crore), and 2024 (Rs 35,098 crore) with a net outflow of Rs 3,973 crore recorded in 2025.
DII trend
DIIs have increasingly emerged as market stabilisers for many years now. After being net sellers in 2016, 2017, and 2019, DIIs turned into consistent buyers during periods of foreign selling. They infused Rs 55,595 crore in March 2020, cushioning markets during the Covid-led FII exodus, and repeated the role in 2022 with net purchases of Rs 39,677 crore.
Domestic flows remained robust in subsequent years, with investments of Rs 30,549 crore in 2023, Rs 56,356 crore in 2024, and Rs 37,079 crore in 2025.
Nifty outlook
Based on the Nifty rollover data for the February series, Axis Direct, in a note, said it expects the March series to expire between 24,500 and 26,000. “With heavy Call resistance at 26,000–26,500, PUT support at 24,500–25,000, and the 25,500–26,000 zone acting as the decisive pivot due to high dual-side activity,” it said in a note.
(Data Inputs from Ritesh Presswala)
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