The pace of rise in bank profitability is likely to bottom out this fiscal year, and gradually improve in FY27 as funding pressures ease and net interest margins (NIMs) stabilise, the agency said in its outlook on the financial sector for FY27.
The rating agency expects advances growth to remain at 13% for FY27, unchanged from FY26. That would outpace deposit growth, which is expected at 11.4% in FY27, from 10.7% in FY 26. The loan to deposit ratio is expected to rise to 83.2% in FY27 from 81.9% in FY 26 and 80.3% in FY25, potentially constraining incremental growth.
“Elevated loan deposit ratios (LDRs) remain a constraining factor for the system at 81.9%. Banks are expected to bridge the gap between loans and deposits by tapping the CD and the corporate bond market,” said Karan Gupta, head – financial institutions, India Ratings & Research.
Gross non performing assets (GNPA) is projected to fall to 1.9% in FY26 and 1.7% in FY27 from 2.2% in FY25 . For non bank finance companies, the agency expects moderate growth as companies would likely be selective in lending to customers, specially of the MSME segment. NBFCs are projected to record a moderated loan growth rate of 15%-16%, lower than earlier years. Credit growth for NBFCs stood at 18% in FY26
“FY27 is expected to be a year of measured growth for NBFCs, as they will navigate asset quality challenges across multiple segments. Lower funding costs will provide some relief, but stricter customer selection is likely to compress yields, limiting profitability,” Gupta said.