The estimates of Kotak Institutional Equities, Nuvama Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) and ElaraCapital have been taken into account.
Analysts say Q2 is likely to reflect a seasonally soft quarter for IndiGo but with steady demand and stable capacity metrics, the medium-term outlook remains constructive, supported by international expansion, network additions, and disciplined cost management.
Here’s what brokerages recommend:
Kotak EquitiesKotak Equities expects InterGlobe Aviation to report a widening adjusted net loss of Rs 1,574 crore for Q2FY25, compared with a net loss of Rs 987 crore in the same period last year.
The brokerage forecasts net sales at Rs 17,646 crore, up 4% YoY but down 14% sequentially.
Operating performance is also likely to remain under pressure, with Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) estimated at Rs 1,241 crore, marking a 24% YoY and a steep 76% QoQ decline. The EBITDA margin is projected at 7%, down 258 basis points YoY and 1,847 basis points QoQ, indicating significant compression in profitability on both yearly and sequential comparisons.
Kotak expect a 5% YoY increase in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) which it said is at the lower-end of guidance with flat YoY load factor at 83%. ASK is a key metric for measuring an airline’s passenger carrying capacity.
The brokerage also builds-in flat YoY yield with 50 bps negative impact of mix (international growing at 2X the pace of domestic volumes).
Its expects RASK (Revenue per Available Seat Kilometer) less CASK (Revenue per Available Seat Kilometer) at -Rs 0.16 per ASK, against -Rs 0.38 per ASK in 2QFY25. This excludes other income and forex. The same reflects the effect of contained capacity expansion in the seasonally weak quarter.
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Nuvama
Nuvama expects InterGlobe Aviation to report a strong turnaround at the core level, with a core profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 324 crore, compared to a loss in the same quarter last year.
The company’s revenues are estimated at Rs 19,148 crore, marking a 13% YoY increase while a likely 7% decline on a sequential basis.
On the operating front, EBITDAR (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, and rentals) is expected at Rs 3,566 crore, representing a 49% YoY rise, reflecting operational resilience, even though it is likely down 38% QoQ.
Nuvama expects Q2FY26 EBITDAR to jump on 10% higher RPKMs or Revenue Passenger Kilometers and 3% increase in yields. It expects a flattish CASK YoY as general cost inflation and higher forex losses are offset by decreased AoG related costs.
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Motilal Oswal
Net loss is seen at Rs 661 crore, narrowing on a YoY basis versus Rs 989 crore in the year ago period. The company had reported a profit of Rs 2,161 crore in the April-June quarter.
MOFSL pegs company’s net sales at Rs 18,317 crore, reflecting an 8% YoY increase.
Operating profit is likely to see a sharper improvement, with EBITDA projected at Rs 2,112 crore, up 30% YoY from Rs 1,618 crore in the same period last year. Correspondingly, EBITDA margins are expected to expand to 11.5% in Q2FY26, compared with 9.5% in Q2FY2.
This brokerage expects ASK at Rs 4,100 crore, up 7.5% YoY while the PLF at 84% compared to 82.7% in 2QFY25. The RPK of Rs 3,450 crore is seen that may go up 9% YoY.
Indigo’s average fare fell 2% QoQ to Rs 6,214 on one-month forward bookings in 2Q, MOFSL noted. It fell 5% QoQ to Rs 6,304 on 15-day forward bookings.
Management focuses on international expansion, with the addition of new networks and code-share agreements.
ElaraCapital
Elara expects Indigo recurring PAT (excluding forex loss) to be at Rs 1,530 crore against a loss of Rs 750 crore in Q2FY25 due to lower cost and higher RASK, though partly offset by higher depreciation and interest costs.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)