Markets have climbed every wall of worry
Despite trading in a tight band amid global uncertainty, Bolinjkar remains firmly optimistic. “Market is well positioned to hit 27,000 from current levels,” he told ET Now. “We have climbed every wall of worry and all things after the tariffs, the various FTAs that we have signed, and the encouraging results that we have seen in the quarters point to a very strong growth trajectory going ahead.”
With earnings season largely behind investors and positive developments on the trade front already priced in, the near-term question is whether markets can sustain momentum. Bolinjkar believes they can — and that new highs are firmly on the cards.
Metals sector: Strong momentum with more room to run
The Nifty Metal Index touching 12,000 and Tata Steel hitting a 52-week high has turned heads, but Bolinjkar says the rally in metals is far from over.
“The trend towards purchasing of hard metal currencies is going to continue and they are only going to get stronger,” he said, adding that any sideways correction represents a buying opportunity rather than a warning sign.
His top pick in the space is Hindustan Zinc, where rising silver prices are expected to directly boost earnings per share and overall profitability. The analyst is equally confident on Tata Steel, calling it “extremely undervalued” with very strong demand traction on the ground. Supportive regulatory action protecting Indian markets from cheap imports adds further fuel to the bullish thesis.
“We believe that Tata Steel should move very aggressively from here,” Bolinjkar said, noting that other steel companies are likely to join the upmove as the sector re-rates higher.
Paytm: A long-running bull case heading toward ₹1,800–₹2,000
One of Bolinjkar’s more notable long-standing calls has been on Paytm, which he backed at sub-₹700 levels. The fintech platform has attracted fresh institutional attention recently following a bullish note from Macquarie, and the stock has responded positively.
Bolinjkar sees significantly more upside ahead. His sum-of-the-parts valuation model points to a target in the range of ₹1,800 to ₹2,000 over the next 12 months. The investment thesis rests on two pillars: double-digit revenue growth and disciplined cost management that is expected to drive meaningful margin expansion.
“Double-digit growth is very much for the asking and that coupled with its very disciplined cost measures is going to add to the margins,” he said. For investors who missed the earlier move, Bolinjkar’s view suggests the value unlock journey at Paytm still has a long way to go.
Cigarette stocks: Tax hikes are a speed bump, Not a roadblock
The additional indirect tax burden on cigarettes has rattled some investors, but Bolinjkar is not concerned — and history backs his view. Every time GST rates on cigarettes have risen, there has been a brief lull in volumes, but demand has consistently bounced back.
“They are very oblivious to price hikes,” he noted, pointing to the inelastic nature of tobacco demand. Among the three listed cigarette players, Bolinjkar believes VST Industries is best positioned to capitalize on the eventual demand recovery and the pricing power that comes with it.
Pharma: A word of caution
Not everything in Bolinjkar’s outlook is rosy. The analyst is adopting a more cautious stance on pharmaceutical stocks, particularly those that have recently come under US FDA scrutiny. Aurobindo Pharma is among the names flagged, and a softening dollar adds another layer of earnings pressure for export-heavy pharma companies.
“We are kind of a little guarded on pharma stocks, especially the ones which are flagged off by the regulator,” he said, advising investors to tread carefully in this space until regulatory concerns are resolved.
The big picture
Bolinjkar’s overall market view is one of cautious optimism grounded in fundamentals. Trade agreements, regulatory protectionism in steel, commodity price tailwinds for miners, and a recovering platform economy are all pointing in the same direction. For investors navigating a market that has already run hard, the message is clear: stay selective, focus on undervalued names with earnings momentum, and don’t mistake short-term consolidation for a trend reversal.