Edited excerpts from a chat on how to trade in the week ahead:
Nifty ended the week 0.5% lower as FIIs continued to pull out money from India amid a subdued earnings season and delays in signing of India-US trade deal. How would you go about playing the July month expiry given this backdrop?
As we head into the expiry week, the rollover stands at 38.6%, notably below the three-month average during similar periods, indicating limited participation in carrying forward positions. Interestingly, the rollover cost is at its highest in three months, suggesting that while broader market involvement is subdued, the premium paid by committed traders reflects cautious optimism and hints at potential volatility.
Meanwhile, the open interest Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has declined to 0.71, pointing to a shift in sentiment where traders are either unwinding bearish bets or increasing bullish positions. Additionally, 66% of Nifty50 stocks expiring next week have witnessed short buildup, and 86% of August series constituents have also seen similar positioning. This heavy short exposure across both series could act as a contrarian indicator, potentially triggering a bounce back as we approach expiry.
Nifty has been struck in a narrow range since the last 2-3 months. Do you see chances of a breakout on either side anytime soon?
Friday saw a close below 50-DMA, exposing the 200-DMA in the 24,000 vicinity as the next potential downside objective. However, with momentum indicators continuing to remain weak, we are not convinced that a directional downside is about to emerge. Towards this end, we are inclined to play for upswings, potentially in the second half of next week, and will be prepared for a plunge only on close below 24650.
Nifty Bank outperformed and ended with a small weekly gain. How to trade in the week ahead? Will the momentum continue?
Nifty Bank is now near the lower bollinger band. But with the band seeing a narrowing lately, we are of the view that a swing higher is likely rather than a downside break of the lower band. Directional moving indicators are also weak, signalling against a vertical drop. Towards this end, we expect limited extension to Friday’s downsides, followed by upswing attempts in the coming week.
Weaker numbers from software exporters pulled the IT index down by 4%. Do you fear more downside in IT stocks?
Nifty IT failed to sustain momentum after breaking above the weekly Supertrend level last month and has since been forming lower lows. On the weekly chart, the index has formed a bearish Marubozu candle, closing below the ascending trendline support at 36,650, which signals growing weakness. Additionally, the weekly MACD is on the verge of crossing below the signal line, further reinforcing the bearish outlook for the coming sessions.
From a derivatives perspective, around 80% of IT stocks witnessed short additions on Friday, and 40% showed similar activity over the week. Moreover, nearly 50% of both near ITM and OTM call strikes saw short buildup, indicating that traders are positioning for further downside.
Among the index constituents, TCS, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, and Persistent have already seen their weekly MACD cross below the signal line. Infosys and LTIMindtree are on the verge of similar breakdowns, suggesting continued pressure.
However, the average RSI of the constituents has dipped to around 35, approaching the oversold territory. This hints at a potential attempt to reverse the trend in the near future, although confirmation is awaited.
IEX shares had the worst trading day on Thursday when it ended nearly 30% lower. Do you think that the recovery seen on Friday is strong enough to sustain in the days ahead?
While Thursday’s collapse was huge, it should not be forgotten that relentless downside has been on since 16th July. Friday’s inside bar provides a glimmer of hope as this candlestick pattern usually signals a reversal. However, with downside momentum indicators continuing to be very strong, we are not convinced that the stock is ready for an outright reversal. An hour’s close above 147 could be played for short covering rallies to 155, but even in the event of a surprise extension in upswing, we are not convinced that a breach of 170-177 would unfold soon.
Give me your top ideas for the week.
BATAINDIA (CMP: 1204)
View – Buy
Target – 1280
SL – 1167
The stock has been consolidating within a narrow range since March and is currently trading near the lower boundary of that range. On the daily chart, the MACD histogram shows signs of exhaustion at lower levels, indicating a potential short-term rebound. Given this setup, we anticipate a move toward the 1280 zone in the near term. However, to manage risk, long positions should be protected with a stop-loss placed below the 1167 level.
GIPCL (CMP: 199)
View – Buy
Target – 223
SL – 192
The stock has been on a declining trend over the past three weeks and is currently attempting to stabilize near the rising trendline support around the 197 level. On the daily chart, the MACD histogram has reached its lower extreme—levels last seen in January 2025—indicating a potential for a short-term rebound. Based on this setup, we anticipate a move toward the 223 mark in the near term. Long positions should be safeguarded with a stop-loss placed below 192 to manage downside risk.